Your Money: After the Storm: Managing Your Homeowner’s Claim


Tom Mihalek/Reuters


Mark Baronowski shoveled sand from the living room of a beach front property in Bay Head, N.J., last week. Many victims of Hurricane Sandy are novices when it comes to catastrophic insurance claims.







There is a sort of honeymoon period that occurs after a big storm like Hurricane Sandy, when insurance executives appear on the local news offering reassuring words. Their brightly painted vans pull into residential neighborhoods amid the standing water and debris. Everyone is hopeful. Handshakes and back-patting all around.




That period is about to end. Prices for roofers and construction materials will rise, disadvantageous parsing of policy language will commence and gangs of class-action lawyers will round up aggrieved clients who still have months of homelessness ahead of them. Many claims will take years to settle.


It happens every time, and so it will with this storm. That’s not to say that a majority of people with insurance claims won’t be satisfied with the check they receive or won’t get one quickly.


But when this many people have extensive damage to their most significant asset, billions of dollars are at stake for the companies that have the power to make them whole. So there is no reason for policyholders to be anything but wary until their own big check clears.


Many victims of Hurricane Sandy are novices when it comes to catastrophic insurance claims. So to see what sort of resistance they should expect shortly, I turned to the lawyers and adjusters-for-hire who do nothing but negotiate with insurance companies all day long. Some of them used to work for the companies, in fact.


Here are the things they warn people to watch out for:


THAT INDEPENDENT ADJUSTER Many people with damaged homes have started to meet with representatives who assessed their damaged homes to estimate repair costs. They may have introduced themselves as “independent adjusters,” but this is a misnomer. They represent the insurance company and are not neutral.


In storms like this, large numbers of these freelance claims adjusters parachute in from out of town. In the industry, they are known as storm troopers. They work 18-hour days for a while since no insurance company has enough of its own full-time staff to deploy after a storm like this one. Often, they make enough money not to work for months afterward.


“These guys have a lot of work to do, and it’s a thankless job,” said Matthew Tennenbaum, who used to be an independent adjuster but switched sides and now works for policyholders as a “public” adjuster in Cherry Hill, N.J.


Mr. Tennenbaum worries about the storm troopers’ thoroughness. “They’re going to see 10 properties a day and they’re quickly writing estimates,” he said. “If they spend an extra three or four hours properly writing one estimate, they could have written three more and made more money.”


Though many of them are former builders or contractors, they may not, if time is of the essence, always pull up every floor, explore every inch of the attic or look behind every wall. And they may not know much about your insurance company’s policy.


“The insurance companies hand them a manual, and they may not really understand the manual,” said J. Robert Hunter, the director of insurance for the Consumer Federation of America, who has worked for insurance companies and once ran the federal flood insurance program.  “It’s a crash course at that point.”


  The good news here is that these are not the people who make the final call on your claim. But many policyholders assume that their word is the final word.


WIND VERSUS FLOOD Back at headquarters, other adjusters have their eye on an exclusion that will be crucial for this storm, with its horrific storm surges but relatively mild winds: homeowner’s insurance generally does not cover floods.


Unfortunately, many people do not know this and many more have not purchased or renewed policies with the federal flood insurance program that covers up to $250,000 of flood damage. Researchers from the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, working with colleagues at Florida State, the University of Miami and Columbia University, surveyed people in the storm’s path by telephone three days before it hit.


Among people within a block of a body of water, 46 percent had no flood insurance. In areas that had been evacuated in past storms or where the authorities advised people to leave, 58 percent did not have it. Moreover, 39 percent of all the people who thought they did have flood coverage mistakenly believed that their homeowner’s insurance covered it.


People without coverage but lots of damage from the storm surge might do one of a couple of things. A few stubborn ones will sue, arguing that if the wind drove the surge then it’s not really a flood. Judges haven’t taken kindly to this line of reasoning over the years, but that probably won’t keep people from trying again. The Federal Emergency Management Agency may also offer some assistance.


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Sanofi Halves Price of Drug After Sloan-Kettering Balks at Paying It





In an unusual move, a big drug company said on Thursday that it would effectively cut in half the price of a new cancer drug after a leading cancer center said it would not use the drug because it was too expensive.




The move — announced by Sanofi for the colon cancer drug Zaltrap — could be a sign of resistance to the unfettered increase in the prices of cancer drugs, some of which cost more than $100,000 a year and increase survival by a few months at best.


Zaltrap came to market in August at a price of about $11,000 a month. Soon after, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center in New York decided not to use the drug, saying it was twice as expensive but no more effective than a similar medicine, Avastin from Genentech. Both drugs improved median survival by 1.4 months, doctors there said.


Three doctors at Sloan-Kettering publicized the cancer center’s decision last month in an Op-Ed article in The New York Times.


“Ignoring the cost of care is no longer tenable,” they wrote. ”Soaring spending has presented the medical community with a new obligation. When choosing treatments for patients, we have to consider the financial strains they may cause alongside the benefits they may deliver.”


Sanofi executives argued that the price they had set was very similar to that of Avastin. “The intent was not to charge a premium,” Christopher A. Viehbacher, the chief executive of Sanofi, said in an interview last month.


Sloan-Kettering, he said, was basing its price comparison on a dose of Avastin that was half the dose Sanofi used in its own comparison.


On Thursday, Sanofi backed down. “We believe that Zaltrap is priced competitively as used in real-world situations,” it said in a statement. “However, we recognize that there was some market resistance to the perceived relative price of Zaltrap in the U.S. — especially in light of low awareness of Zaltrap in the U.S. market. As such, we are taking immediate action across the U.S. oncology community to reduce the net cost of Zaltrap.”


The move was first reported on Thursday by The Cancer Letter, a newsletter about cancer issues.


Sanofi said it would not change the official price for Zaltrap but would offer discounts of about 50 percent. Zaltrap, which is given intravenously, is not bought directly by patients but is sold to doctors or hospitals, which administer it. The cost is then reimbursed by Medicare or private insurers. Patients could be liable for a co-payment.


Dr. Leonard B. Saltz, chief of gastrointestinal oncology at Sloan-Kettering and one of the authors of the Op-Ed article, said Sanofi’s offer of discounts “doesn’t really address the problem from our perspective” because Medicare reimbursement and patient co-payments would still be based on the higher list price, at least for several more months.


Also, he said, the discounts could give doctors and hospitals an incentive to use Zaltrap because they could profit from the difference between the discounted price they pay for the drug and the higher price at which they are reimbursed by insurers.


Dr. Saltz said even at the lower price, he did not foresee Sloan-Kettering doctors using Zaltrap because it was no better than Avastin and might be more toxic.


Dr. Saltz is now a consultant to Genentech and has been one to Sanofi.


Zaltrap, developed by Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, a biotechnology company in Tarrytown, N.Y., was approved by the Food and Drug Administration in August for use as a second-line treatment for colorectal cancer, meaning after an initial regimen had stopped working. Like Avastin, Zaltrap impedes the formation of blood vessels that nourish cancer cells.


Dr. Peter B. Bach, director of the Center for Health Policy and Outcomes at Sloan-Kettering and one of the authors of the Op-Ed piece, said the price of Zaltrap reflected a bigger problem — that over all there was little relation between drug prices and the value they provided.


“Normal markets wouldn’t behave like this,” he said on Thursday. “You couldn’t introduce something twice as expensive and no better and still sell it.”


Dr. Lee Newcomer, senior vice president for oncology at UnitedHealthcare, said it was the first time he could recall a company cutting the price of a cancer drug so much. “It was the first time physicians have stood up and said, “Enough is enough,’ ” he said. “And I think that was a watershed moment.”


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Sanofi Halves Price of Drug After Sloan-Kettering Balks at Paying It





In an unusual move, a big drug company said on Thursday that it would effectively cut in half the price of a new cancer drug after a leading cancer center said it would not use the drug because it was too expensive.




The move — announced by Sanofi for the colon cancer drug Zaltrap — could be a sign of resistance to the unfettered increase in the prices of cancer drugs, some of which cost more than $100,000 a year and increase survival by a few months at best.


Zaltrap came to market in August at a price of about $11,000 a month. Soon after, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center in New York decided not to use the drug, saying it was twice as expensive but no more effective than a similar medicine, Avastin from Genentech. Both drugs improved median survival by 1.4 months, doctors there said.


Three doctors at Sloan-Kettering publicized the cancer center’s decision last month in an Op-Ed article in The New York Times.


“Ignoring the cost of care is no longer tenable,” they wrote. ”Soaring spending has presented the medical community with a new obligation. When choosing treatments for patients, we have to consider the financial strains they may cause alongside the benefits they may deliver.”


Sanofi executives argued that the price they had set was very similar to that of Avastin. “The intent was not to charge a premium,” Christopher A. Viehbacher, the chief executive of Sanofi, said in an interview last month.


Sloan-Kettering, he said, was basing its price comparison on a dose of Avastin that was half the dose Sanofi used in its own comparison.


On Thursday, Sanofi backed down. “We believe that Zaltrap is priced competitively as used in real-world situations,” it said in a statement. “However, we recognize that there was some market resistance to the perceived relative price of Zaltrap in the U.S. — especially in light of low awareness of Zaltrap in the U.S. market. As such, we are taking immediate action across the U.S. oncology community to reduce the net cost of Zaltrap.”


The move was first reported on Thursday by The Cancer Letter, a newsletter about cancer issues.


Sanofi said it would not change the official price for Zaltrap but would offer discounts of about 50 percent. Zaltrap, which is given intravenously, is not bought directly by patients but is sold to doctors or hospitals, which administer it. The cost is then reimbursed by Medicare or private insurers. Patients could be liable for a co-payment.


Dr. Leonard B. Saltz, chief of gastrointestinal oncology at Sloan-Kettering and one of the authors of the Op-Ed article, said Sanofi’s offer of discounts “doesn’t really address the problem from our perspective” because Medicare reimbursement and patient co-payments would still be based on the higher list price, at least for several more months.


Also, he said, the discounts could give doctors and hospitals an incentive to use Zaltrap because they could profit from the difference between the discounted price they pay for the drug and the higher price at which they are reimbursed by insurers.


Dr. Saltz said even at the lower price, he did not foresee Sloan-Kettering doctors using Zaltrap because it was no better than Avastin and might be more toxic.


Dr. Saltz is now a consultant to Genentech and has been one to Sanofi.


Zaltrap, developed by Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, a biotechnology company in Tarrytown, N.Y., was approved by the Food and Drug Administration in August for use as a second-line treatment for colorectal cancer, meaning after an initial regimen had stopped working. Like Avastin, Zaltrap impedes the formation of blood vessels that nourish cancer cells.


Dr. Peter B. Bach, director of the Center for Health Policy and Outcomes at Sloan-Kettering and one of the authors of the Op-Ed piece, said the price of Zaltrap reflected a bigger problem — that over all there was little relation between drug prices and the value they provided.


“Normal markets wouldn’t behave like this,” he said on Thursday. “You couldn’t introduce something twice as expensive and no better and still sell it.”


Dr. Lee Newcomer, senior vice president for oncology at UnitedHealthcare, said it was the first time he could recall a company cutting the price of a cancer drug so much. “It was the first time physicians have stood up and said, “Enough is enough,’ ” he said. “And I think that was a watershed moment.”


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DealBook: Priceline to Buy Kayak Software in $1.8 Billion Cash-Stock Deal

Just months after going public, Kayak Software has been snapped up by a rival.

On Thursday, Priceline.com, a travel company from an earlier Internet age, agreed to buy Kayak, a younger competitor, for $1.8 billion in cash and stock.

The acquisition, the largest in Priceline’s history, could provide a new source of revenue for the company.

Priceline, once a highflying company that survived the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s, acts as an online travel agent. It collects fees and commissions on reservations. Kayak, which was started in 2004, allows users to search other sites to compare prices. It makes most of its money from referrals and advertising.

“I see Kayak serving as a global entree into the advertising market for Priceline,” said Daniel Kurnos, an analyst at the Benchmark Company. He said the deal could help Priceline “with their search rankings and give them some additional expertise in the technology department.”

The companies’ global ambitions are also symbiotic. Priceline, which also owns the Asian travel site Agoda.com, has been pushing into new markets overseas. International reservations accounted for 78 percent of its total last year.

In the third quarter, Kayak’s revenue from outside the United States amounted to $17.3 million, a 40 percent increase from the period a year earlier, the company said when it reported earnings on Thursday. Overall third-quarter revenue rose 29 percent, to $78.6 million.

“We believe we can be helpful with Kayak’s plans to build a global online travel brand,” Priceline’s chief executive, Jeffery H. Boyd, said in a statement.

The deal is yet another corporate evolution for Kayak. In a matter of months, the travel search site has gone from a privately held start-up to a publicly traded company to a unit operating under the umbrella of Priceline.

Following a long path to the public markets that started in 2010, Kayak got a relatively warm reception from investors in its July debut. Just months after the troubled offering of Facebook, shares of Kayak surged on their first day of trading, closing at roughly $33. Since then, the stock has fluctuated.

Priceline will pay roughly $40 a share for Kayak. At that level, the acquisition represents a 29 percent premium over Kayak’s closing price of $31.04 a share on Thursday. The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of next year.

“We’re excited to join the world’s premier online travel company,” Steve Hafner, Kayak’s chief executive, said in a statement.

A version of this article appeared in print on 11/09/2012, on page B5 of the NewYork edition with the headline: Priceline to Buy Kayak Software In $1.8 Billion Cash-Stock Deal.
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A Transfer of Power Begins in China

Military delegates arrived for the 18th Communist Party Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Thursday. The weeklong meeting precedes the naming of China’s top leader, who will replace Hu Jintao. The meeting also introduces a new generation of party leaders.
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News Analysis: For Obama, Housing Policy Presents Second Term Headaches

A second-term president may be just the person to tackle America’s housing problems.

When President Obama first came into office, home prices were crashing, foreclosures were soaring and the previous Bush administration had just initiated the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-backed entities that agree to repay mortgages if the original borrower defaults.

With the market in shambles in 2008, the Obama administration pursued a tentative housing policy, for the most part avoiding big moves that might have further weakened the housing market or banks. Eventually, there were some bolder initiatives, like the national mortgage settlement with big banks as well as the Treasury Department’s later aid programs for homeowners.

But as President Obama’s first administration comes to an end, the government is still deeply embedded in the mortgage market. In the third quarter, various government entities backstopped 92 percent of all new residential mortgages, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, a publication that focuses on the home loan industry.

Mr. Obama’s economic team has consistently said it wants the housing market to work without significant government support. But it has taken few actual steps to advance that idea.

“I think Obama is absolutely committed to reducing the government’s role,” said Thomas Lawler, a former chief economist at Fannie Mae and founder of Lawler Economic and Housing Consulting, an industry analysis firm. “But no one’s yet found a format to do that.”

Housing policy is hard to tackle because so many people have benefited from the status quo. The entire real estate system — the banks, the agents, the home buyers — all depend on a market that provides fixed-rate, 30-year mortgages that can be easily refinanced when interest rates drop. That sort of loan is rare outside of the United States. And any effort to overhaul housing and the mortgage market could eventually reduce the amount of such mortgages in the country, angering many and creating a political firestorm.

In other words, the best person to fundamentally change how housing works may be a president who won’t be running for office again.

Most immediately, the housing market has to be strong enough to deal with a government pullback. Some analysts think it’s ready. “I think the housing recovery is far enough along that they can start winding down Fannie and Freddie,” said Phillip L. Swagel at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy, who served as assistant secretary for economic policy under Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr.

The administration can take smaller steps first. Mr. Lawler, the housing economist, thinks the government could start to reduce the maximum amount that it will guarantee for Fannie and Freddie loans. In some areas, like parts of the Northeast and California, it is as high as $625,000. Before the financial crisis, it was essentially capped at $417,000.

The big question is whether the private sector — banks and investors that buy bonds backed with mortgages — will pick up the slack when the government eases out of the market. If they don’t, the supply of mortgages could fall and house prices could weaken.

Banks say their appetite depends on how new rules for mortgages turn out. In setting such regulations, some tough choices have to be made.

The new rules will effectively map the riskiness of various types of mortgages. In determining that, regulators will look at the features of the loans and the borrowers income. Banks say they are unlikely to hold loans deemed risky, and their lobbyists are pressing for legal protection on the safer ones, called qualified mortgages.

The temptation will be to make the definition of what constitutes a qualified mortgage as broad as possible, to ensure that the banks lend to a wide range of borrowers. But regulators concerned with the health of the banks won’t want a system that incentivizes institutions to make potentially risky loans.

One set of qualified mortgage regulations, being written by Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, could be finalized as early as January. Other regulators like the Federal Reserve are expected to take longer in finalizing their mortgage rules. Resolving the conflict between mortgage availability and bank strength may ultimately depend the person who replaces Timothy F. Geithner as Treasury secretary. Mr. Geithner is stepping down at the end of Mr. Obama’s first term.

The Obama administration faces other daunting decisions.

One is how to deal with the considerable number of troubled mortgages still in the financial system. Banks might be reluctant to make new loans until they have a better idea of the ultimate amount of losses on the old loans. “If you don’t ever deal with these problems, you may never get to where you want to go,” said Mr. Lawler, the housing economist.

To help tackle that issue, the new administration might decide to make its mortgage relief programs more aggressive. It might even aim for more loan modifications, writing down the value of the mortgages to make them easier to pay. The Federal Housing Finance Agency, the regulator that oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, has effectively blocked such write-downs on the vast amount of loans those entities have guaranteed.

A new Obama administration may move to change the agency’s stance on write-downs, perhaps by replacing its acting director, Edward DeMarco. If that happened, it would be a sign that the White House has a taste for more radical housing actions. The agency declined to comment.

Then there’s what to do with the Federal Housing Administration, another government entity that has backstopped a huge amount of mortgages since the financial crisis. The housing administration was set up to focus on lower-income borrowers, and it backs loans that have very low down payments. Its share of the market has grown from where it was before the crisis. The F.H.A. accounted for 13 percent of the market in the third quarter, according to Inside Mortgage Finance.

The new administration has to decide whether it wants the F.H.A. to continue doing as much business. The risk is that a big pull back by the F.H.A. could reduce the availability of mortgages to lower-income borrowers. Banks almost certainly won’t want to write loans with minuscule down payments because they’re considered riskier.

Ultimately, housing policy comes down to one question: Which borrowers should get the most subsidies?

Right now, the government largesse encompasses a wide swath of borrowers. But most analysts believe government support should be focused on lower-income borrowers.

“We will know that the Obama administration is serious about housing finance reform when it comes up with a proposal for affordable housing,” said Mr. Swagel, the University of Maryland professor.

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Well: The Presidential Health Quiz

Whether it’s George Washington’s teeth or Bill Clinton’s former hamburger habit, Americans have always been fascinated by the health of the president and presidential candidates.

With help from the Web site DoctorZebra, which has compiled an exhaustive list of the medical history of American presidents, we’ve created an Election Day quiz to test your knowledge of presidential fitness and health.

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Well: The Presidential Health Quiz

Whether it’s George Washington’s teeth or Bill Clinton’s former hamburger habit, Americans have always been fascinated by the health of the president and presidential candidates.

With help from the Web site DoctorZebra, which has compiled an exhaustive list of the medical history of American presidents, we’ve created an Election Day quiz to test your knowledge of presidential fitness and health.

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After Many Slip-Ups, Mideast E-Commerce Gains Its Footing








DUBAI — Back in 2005, Souq.com was a new Web site modeled after eBay in the United States, catering to the nascent online retailing market in the Middle East. In the last week of October 2012, the fast-growing site received $45 million in funding from international investors, creating a new benchmark for the region’s evolving e-commerce scene.




“When we launched at the end of 2005, e-commerce was still in its infancy, and getting started that early gave us time to find a business model that works today,” said Ronaldo Meshawar, chief executive of Souq, which is based in Dubai. “It also helped us be an enabler in the region for businesses to sell their products online.”


The $45 million deal bolsters an industry that is still relatively young and fragmented, extremely capital intensive, and facing logistical hurdles that have led many sites to shut down.


The large size of the funding shows that money, particularly from foreign investors, is available for the right kind of business. That means one that appeals to consumers and has the potential to grow.


There have been a lot of mixed messages for the regional e-commerce community over the last year. The sudden exit of LivingSocial, the global daily deals site, from the Middle East in August seemed put a nail in the coffin of the regional online retailing market.


The demise of other promising, local sites, including Joob, Nahel and Mizado, in the months preceding the abrupt closure of LivingSocial’s regional operations suggested that e-commerce business models in the Gulf were not working.


But success stories are now starting to emerge from a handful of e-commerce sites that are figuring out how to run an online business in the area.


Namshi.com, a copycat of Zappos.com, which sells shoes online, has shown strong growth in its first year of operation. The site grew from three to 100 employees since it began in October 2011, and now manages 600 orders a day, according to Namshi’s founders.


Backed by e-commerce veterans, including Rocket Internet in Germany, Namshi also received $20 million in funding from J.P. Morgan and Blakeney Management in September to further grow the business.


“There are challenges around delivery of product, setting up efficient distribution centers and making the right decisions about styles to keep in our inventory base,” said Muhammed Mekki, one of Namshi’s three co-founders.


“The initial funding was there to test and see if fashion e-commerce can work in the Mideast,” he said. “Now that we’ve proven the model works, we’ll focus on expanding.”


MarkaVIP, a Jordanian site that provides discounts on luxury items, has also caught the eye of international investors, attracting $10 million in capital from European and American investment firms in April.


Souq is the latest and biggest in a string of new sites. The firm received funding from the South African group Naspers and Tiger Global, a New York hedge fund.


The firm’s parent company, Jabbar Internet Group, still holds a majority stake. Jabbar Internet manages the spin-off brands that were not purchased by Yahoo when Maktoob, a news site, was sold to Yahoo in 2009 for $175 million.


When Souq started up in 2005, the team brought eBay’s auction model to the region, in Arabic. They soon faced a slew of problems that smaller sites had been unable to resolve in the early years.


For one thing, transporting goods ordered on the Web across the Gulf countries was not easy because currencies and legal structures varied from place to place. Often, there was the added necessity of opening new bank accounts or finding a local partner to share the business. This also made it more difficult to manage inventory.


Online payment was also a hurdle. Many customers preferred to pay with cash on delivery rather than entering credit card details online. Cash on delivery put a strain on the company’s resources as it had to ship goods first and collect, or not, the money later.


Online payments are now becoming more widely accepted and some of the shipping issues have been resolved. As part of those efforts, Namshi joined with Aramex, a global shipping firm based in Amman. The arrangement lets Namshi use Aramex’s network of warehouses to store its inventory and ship orders in 24 hours.


To simplify things, Souq scrapped the eBay-style auction model in 2010 and instead adopted fixed prices. “You can’t take a model and just apply it to the region,” Mr. Meshawar said. “The copycat model doesn’t work, we had to execute on the ground and adapt.”


Now, Souq has 8 million to 9.5 million unique visits each month and a client base of 3.5 million customers across the Gulf, according to Mr. Meshawar. The site ships thousands of items a day.


The new funding will go toward setting up new distribution centers, expanding geographically and streamlining operations. Plans are in place to open logistics centers in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, where the site already has a strong following.


The money will also help Souq expand into new categories, including fashion and lifestyle, following the site’s recent acquisition of the fashion site Sukar.com and the sports site run2sport.com.


This is the third round of financing for Souq, which has 200 employees and 50,000 sellers in its online marketplace.


“The failure of some sites just shows that the get-rich-quick, poorly managed sites won’t make it, and it’s a learning curve for entrepreneurs trying to enter the region’s market,” said Alexandra Toomey, an independent e-commerce analyst in Dubai. “Established e-commerce companies with a proven product can succeed if they adapt to the market correctly and have the right backing.”


This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: November 8, 2012

A previous version of this article wrongly included the online bookseller Jamalon in a list of Web sites that have closed this year. Jamalon is still operating.



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Preparing to Step Aside in China, Hu Jintao Warns of Challenges




Changing of the Guard in China:
The New York Times’s Beijing correspondents discuss the challenges ahead for China as the country begins its once-in-a-decade leadership transition.







BEIJING — Capping 10 careful years at the helm of the Communist Party, China’s top leader, Hu Jintao, on Thursday boasted of successes during his tenure while issuing a blunt warning against unrest and political reform.




Mr. Hu, 69, is to step down as the party’s general secretary next week, handing over power to his designated successor, Xi Jinping. His speech at the opening here in Beijing of the Communist Party’s 18th Congress was likely to be his last major address — a chance to write his own eulogy while also setting the course for Mr. Xi.


“He’s worried about how history will view him,” said Qian Gang, who works with the China Media Project of Hong Kong University. “On the whole, he is against reform.”


Formally, Mr. Hu nodded to almost every manner of reform: economic, social, political and environmental. But, in the fashion of his predecessors, this was balanced with warnings of the need to guard against a rise in unrest. It was an unusual admission for a man whose signature slogan is creating for China a “harmonious society.”


“Social contradictions have clearly increased,” said the formal 64-page document issued at the congress. (Mr. Hu’s speech, even at 100 minutes, was only a summary.)


“There are many problems concerning the public’s immediate interests in education, employment, social security, health care, housing, the environment, food and drug safety, workplace safety, public security and law enforcement.”


The solution, Mr. Hu said, was “reform and opening up,” a policy initiated by the man who chose him for the job nearly two decades ago, the paramount leader Deng Xiaoping.


Mr. Hu also lauded his own contribution to Communist Party ideology: “Scientific Development.” Most of his predecessors have had their own ideologies enshrined as guiding state doctrines. His repetition of the phrase — which means that the party should be pragmatic and follow policies that are demonstrably effective — implied that he, too, would be so honored.


But his caveats to reform were many.


According to Mr. Qian, a leading expert on textual analysis of Chinese leaders’ speeches, Mr. Hu’s speech hit on almost every anti-reform phrase used by Chinese Communist leaders.


He referred to Communist China’s founder three times with the phrase “Mao Zedong Thought,” and said the party must “resolutely not follow Western political systems,” something not mentioned at the last party congress five years ago.


“They don’t say these terms lightly,” Mr. Qian said. “When they mention it, it matters.”


Mr. Hu also coined a new term, pledging that the party will not to follow the “wicked way” of changing the party’s course.


Mr. Hu’s speech is thought to have been drawn up in cooperation with his successor, Mr. Xi. While Mr. Xi is widely thought to be consulting with liberal members of China’s intelligentsia, he either did not oppose Mr. Hu’s direction or was not able to change it.


That is important, observers say, because Mr. Xi will not exercise unrestrained power when he takes over. Besides the other half-dozen members on the Standing Committee of the party’s Politburo, he will also have to listen to the advice of Mr. Hu, Mr. Hu’s own predecessor, Jiang Zemin, and an estimated 20 other “senior leaders.” As if to emphasize their role, these men were seated on the dais next to Mr. Hu. Many of them are in their 70s and 80s and have exercised power for decades.


“Xi Jinping certainly won’t be a Gorbachev,” said Yao Jianfu, a former official and researcher who closely follows Chinese politics and advocates democratic change. “Every aspect of reform has an important precondition — that the Communist Party remains in charge.”


Even though Mr. Hu’s speech was broadcast live on national television and on screens in Beijing subway cars, gauging popular opinion was difficult.


Microbloggers, who are mostly urban and fairly well educated, at times cast scorn on the rhetoric. One blogger listed the Marxist terminology that Mr. Hu used and wrote simply “madness.” Others used laughing emoticons, while some delved closely into the speech for clues to new policies — some noted his fleeting mention of China’s unpopular single-child policy.


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