For Hourly Workers After the Storm, No Work, No Pay


Chantal Sainvilus, a home health aide in Brooklyn who makes $10 an hour, does not get paid if she does not show up. So it is no wonder that she joined the thousands of people taking extreme measures to get to work this week, even, in her case, hiking over the Williamsburg Bridge.


While salaried employees worked if they could, often from home after Hurricane Sandy, many of the poorest New Yorkers faced the prospect of losing days, even a crucial week, of pay on top of the economic ground they have lost since the recession.


Low-wage workers, more likely to be paid hourly and work at the whim of their employers, have fared worse in the recovery than those at the top of the income scale — in New York City the bottom 20 percent lost $463 in annual income from 2010 to 2011, in contrast to a gain of almost $2,000 for the top quintile. And there are an increasing number of part-time and hourly workers, the type that safety net programs like unemployment are not designed to serve. Since 2009, when the recovery began, 86 percent of the jobs added nationally have been hourly. Over all, about 60 percent of the nation’s jobs are hourly.


Even as the sluggish economy has accentuated this divide, Hurricane Sandy has acted as a further wedge, threatening to take a far greater toll on the have-littles who live from paycheck to paycheck.


“There’s a lot of people in our society that are living in a very precarious situation in terms of low wages or very insecure work,” said Arne L. Kalleberg, a sociologist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and author of “Good Jobs, Bad Jobs.” “That’s why it’s important to have a safety net that’s based on the idea of people working insecure jobs like this.”


On Friday, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo announced that New York City and four suburban counties were eligible for disaster unemployment relief, which covers a broader spectrum of workers than regular unemployment benefits, including the self-employed like taxi drivers and street vendors as well as those who were unable to get to work.


New Jersey has also declared people in 10 counties eligible for disaster unemployment assistance. In Connecticut, residents of four counties and the Mashantucket Pequot Indian Reservation are eligible.


A New York Department of Labor spokesman emphasized that workers who lost wages should call to apply because the program is flexible and many eligibility issues would be determined on a case-by-case basis.


But the program might not help people whose commute simply lasted longer or cost more, like Ibezim Oki, a cabdriver who spent $50 on a cab to get from his Brooklyn home to Manhattan on Friday, rather than risk long bus delays, and “now I don’t know how long I’m going to have to wait for gas.”


The commute alone represented a hardship for workers whose jobs require a physical presence, while neighborhood coffee shops in the boroughs and suburbs overflowed with those who needed nothing more than a laptop and Wi-Fi to stay connected to work.


Ms. Sainvilus estimated that on Thursday, she had traveled eight hours to work for five, making her effective pay less than $4 an hour.


Others could not work because their place of business was closed. At a food distribution center in Chelsea, Mike Samuel, 55, a delivery man for a florist, was feeling the pain of five days of lost income. “We don’t work, we don’t get no tips, we don’t get no pay,” he said.


Muta Prather said the chemical company where he works in Newark was flooded, causing him to miss three days of work. He worked part of the day on Thursday helping to clean up, but worried about how he would pay for damage to his own roof.


“It hurts, you know,” said Mr. Prather, who is 49 and lives in West Orange, N.J. “I looked up at my roof, and it’s going to cost me like seven grand. I don’t make that kind of money.”


But at a playground in the Clinton Hill section of Brooklyn, Damien Carney stood with his baby daughter strapped to his chest and his toddler on a nearby swing, enjoying a surprise week off. For Mr. Carney, a salaried portfolio manager for a wine distributor that was closed because it had no power, the storm was amounting to something like a paid vacation with time for cooking and rearranging the living room. “They basically said, ‘Don’t worry about it,’ ” Mr. Carney said of his employers.


Federal labor laws include more protections for salaried workers than hourly workers when a disaster hits. Employers must continue to pay salaries if the worksite is closed for less than a week, even though they are allowed to require employees to use vacation or paid leave for the duration of the closure. Hourly workers, on the other hand, do not have to be paid if the worksite closes. If the workplace is open but salaried workers cannot get there, their pay may be reduced.


Of course, policies vary from workplace to workplace, and some hourly workers were luckier than others. Cassandra Williams, 54, waiting for the bus from Brooklyn to Manhattan with her 6-year-old granddaughter, said the family for whom she keeps house would pay her full wages despite her missing three days of work. Tinash Makots, a 24-year-old salesman at the Nike store in Midtown Manhattan, said he would be paid for the days missed as well.


One nanny in the bus line said she would be paid her regular wages, while another said she would not be compensated for hours missed.


A financial district worker who would identify himself only as William S. said he did not strictly need to go into Manhattan to do his job, but felt that he should make an appearance after one of his staff members showed up every day at 6 a.m. and another paid $40 a day to get to a distant office in Queens.


But Anthony Howell, a 42-year-old hair stylist in Chelsea, said he hadn’t worked all week because his salon, like his high-rise apartment, has no electricity.


“That’s the brutal part,” he said. “The hair industry is like that. You don’t do the work, you don’t get the money.”


Read More..

Second Illness Infects Meningitis Sufferers





Just when they might have thought they were in the clear, people recovering from meningitis in an outbreak caused by a contaminated steroid drug have been struck by a second illness.




The new problem, called an epidural abscess, is an infection near the spine at the site where the drug — contaminated by a fungus — was injected to treat back or neck pain. The abscesses are a localized infection, different from meningitis, which affects the membranes covering the brain and spinal cord. But in some cases, an untreated abscess can cause meningitis. The abscesses have formed even while patients were taking powerful antifungal medicines, putting them back in the hospital for more treatment, often with surgery.


The problem has just begun to emerge, so far mostly in Michigan, which has had more people sickened by the drug — 112 out of 404 nationwide — than any other state.


“We’re hearing about it in Michigan and other locations as well,” said Dr. Tom M. Chiller, the deputy chief of the mycotic diseases branch of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “We don’t have a good handle on how many people are coming back.”


He added, “We are just learning about this and trying to assess how best to manage these patients. They’re very complicated.”


In the last few days, about a third of the 53 patients treated for meningitis at St. Joseph Mercy Hospital in Ann Arbor, Mich., have returned with abscesses, said Dr. Lakshmi K. Halasyamani, the chief medical officer.


“This is a significant shift in the presentation of this fungal infection, and quite concerning,” she said. “An epidural abscess is very serious. It’s not something we expected.”


She and other experts said they were especially puzzled that the infections could occur even though patients were taking drugs that, at least in tests, appeared to work against the fungus causing the infection, a type of black mold called Exserohilum.


The main symptom is severe pain near the injection site. But the abscesses are internal, with no visible signs on the skin, so it takes an M.R.I. scan to make the diagnosis. Some patients have more than one abscess. In some cases, the infection can be drained or cleaned out by a neurosurgeon.


But sometimes fungal strands and abnormal tissue are wrapped around nerves and cannot be surgically removed, said Dr. Carol A. Kauffman, an expert on fungal diseases at the University of Michigan. In such cases, all doctors can do is give a combination of antifungal drugs and hope for the best. They have very little experience with this type of infection.


Some patients have had epidural abscesses without meningitis; St. Joseph Mercy Hospital has had 34 such cases.


A spokesman for the health department in Tennessee, which has had 78 meningitis cases, said that a few cases of epidural abscess had also occurred there, and that the state was trying to assess the extent of the problem.


Dr. Chiller said doctors were also reporting that some patients exposed to the tainted drug had arachnoiditis, a nerve inflammation near the spine that can cause intense pain, bladder problems and numbness.


“Unfortunately, we know from the rare cases of fungal meningitis that occur, that you can have complicated courses for this disease, and it requires prolonged therapy and can have some devastating consequences,” he said.


The meningitis outbreak, first recognized in late September, is one of the worst public health disasters ever caused by a contaminated drug. So far, 29 people have died, often from strokes caused by the infection. The case count is continuing to rise. The drug was a steroid, methylprednisolone acetate, made by the New England Compounding Center in Framingham, Mass. Three contaminated lots of the drug, more than 17,000 vials, were shipped around the country, and about 14,000 people were injected with the drug, mostly for neck and back pain. But some received injections for arthritic joints and have developed joint infections.


Inspections of the compounding center have revealed extensive contamination. It has been shut down, as has another Massachusetts company, Ameridose, with some of the same owners. Both companies have had their products recalled.


Compounding pharmacies, which mix their own drugs, have had little regulation from either states or the federal government, and several others have been shut down recently after inspections found sanitation problems.


Read More..

Second Illness Infects Meningitis Sufferers





Just when they might have thought they were in the clear, people recovering from meningitis in an outbreak caused by a contaminated steroid drug have been struck by a second illness.




The new problem, called an epidural abscess, is an infection near the spine at the site where the drug — contaminated by a fungus — was injected to treat back or neck pain. The abscesses are a localized infection, different from meningitis, which affects the membranes covering the brain and spinal cord. But in some cases, an untreated abscess can cause meningitis. The abscesses have formed even while patients were taking powerful antifungal medicines, putting them back in the hospital for more treatment, often with surgery.


The problem has just begun to emerge, so far mostly in Michigan, which has had more people sickened by the drug — 112 out of 404 nationwide — than any other state.


“We’re hearing about it in Michigan and other locations as well,” said Dr. Tom M. Chiller, the deputy chief of the mycotic diseases branch of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “We don’t have a good handle on how many people are coming back.”


He added, “We are just learning about this and trying to assess how best to manage these patients. They’re very complicated.”


In the last few days, about a third of the 53 patients treated for meningitis at St. Joseph Mercy Hospital in Ann Arbor, Mich., have returned with abscesses, said Dr. Lakshmi K. Halasyamani, the chief medical officer.


“This is a significant shift in the presentation of this fungal infection, and quite concerning,” she said. “An epidural abscess is very serious. It’s not something we expected.”


She and other experts said they were especially puzzled that the infections could occur even though patients were taking drugs that, at least in tests, appeared to work against the fungus causing the infection, a type of black mold called Exserohilum.


The main symptom is severe pain near the injection site. But the abscesses are internal, with no visible signs on the skin, so it takes an M.R.I. scan to make the diagnosis. Some patients have more than one abscess. In some cases, the infection can be drained or cleaned out by a neurosurgeon.


But sometimes fungal strands and abnormal tissue are wrapped around nerves and cannot be surgically removed, said Dr. Carol A. Kauffman, an expert on fungal diseases at the University of Michigan. In such cases, all doctors can do is give a combination of antifungal drugs and hope for the best. They have very little experience with this type of infection.


Some patients have had epidural abscesses without meningitis; St. Joseph Mercy Hospital has had 34 such cases.


A spokesman for the health department in Tennessee, which has had 78 meningitis cases, said that a few cases of epidural abscess had also occurred there, and that the state was trying to assess the extent of the problem.


Dr. Chiller said doctors were also reporting that some patients exposed to the tainted drug had arachnoiditis, a nerve inflammation near the spine that can cause intense pain, bladder problems and numbness.


“Unfortunately, we know from the rare cases of fungal meningitis that occur, that you can have complicated courses for this disease, and it requires prolonged therapy and can have some devastating consequences,” he said.


The meningitis outbreak, first recognized in late September, is one of the worst public health disasters ever caused by a contaminated drug. So far, 29 people have died, often from strokes caused by the infection. The case count is continuing to rise. The drug was a steroid, methylprednisolone acetate, made by the New England Compounding Center in Framingham, Mass. Three contaminated lots of the drug, more than 17,000 vials, were shipped around the country, and about 14,000 people were injected with the drug, mostly for neck and back pain. But some received injections for arthritic joints and have developed joint infections.


Inspections of the compounding center have revealed extensive contamination. It has been shut down, as has another Massachusetts company, Ameridose, with some of the same owners. Both companies have had their products recalled.


Compounding pharmacies, which mix their own drugs, have had little regulation from either states or the federal government, and several others have been shut down recently after inspections found sanitation problems.


Read More..

Bits Blog: Data Shows Twitter Posts That Resonate With Electorate

In Florida, voters responded most when Mitt Romney posted about education and when President Obama did the same about foreign affairs. In Ohio, Mr. Obama’s posted about gay rights, more so than any other topic, held the most traction. For Mr. Romney, it was his posts about the economy.

Twitter introduced an interactive map on Thursday showing which of the candidates’ tweets drove the most engagement — measured by the number of times the tweet was reposted or favorited — on Twitter at the national and state levels.

Nationwide, Mr. Obama’s most popular post was, “No family should have to set aside a college acceptance letter because they don’t have the money.” His second most popular post was actually a quote from Vice President Biden about women’s rights:  “VP Biden: I do not believe that we have a right to tell other people, women, that they can’t control their bodies.” Interestingly, at the state level, that post resonated most with voters in Wyoming, followed by Iowa, South Dakota and West Virginia — states where women’s rights are not considered the pivotal issue.

Mr. Romney’s most popular post was this remark on Sept. 11th: “On this most somber day, America is united under God in its quest for peace and freedom at home and across the world.” Second most popular was a comment about wealth distribution: “I am running for president to get us creating wealth again – not to redistribute it.”

In swing states, Twitter’s map tells an interesting, and sometimes counter intuitive story. According to the latest polls, Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado and Florida are still toss-ups.

In the last presidential election, the President won Virginia by seven percentage points. This year, the race is expected to be much closer. There, voters’ response was highest when the candidates posted about issues related to retirement.

The same was true for Wisconsin. Democrats carried the state in the last six presidential elections, but the addition of one of their own, Representative Paul D. Ryan, to Mr. Romney’s ticket has kept the race tight. There, retirement was also the issue that seemed to have the most traction on Twitter.

In Iowa, where six electoral votes are up for grabs, voters were most engaged when Mr. Obama posted about topics related to energy and the environment and when Romney posted about health care.

Nevada voters responded most to Obama’s comments on taxes. Mr. Obama’s most popular post in that state was “1,240,000 middle-class families in Nevada could face a tax increase under Mitt Romney.” Mr. Romney’s posts about education drove the highest level of engagement. “With over 60k jobs lost & the highest unemployment rate in the nation, Nevadans aren’t better off under @BarackObama,” was Mr. Romney’s most popular post.

In Colorado, women’s issues have taken center stage after women proved crucial to two Democratic victories in the 2010 races for Senate and governor. But according to Twitter’s data, Colorado voters responded in the largest numbers when Mr. Obama posted about taxes. For Mr. Romney, it was his remarks about terrorism.

If, as in the 2004 election, the race comes down to Florida, then the candidates may do well to defy conventional wisdom that retirement is all Florida voters care about. Within Florida, Mr. Romney’s posts about retirement did not resonate as well as those about education and foreign affairs. Likewise, Mr. Obama’s posts about topics relevant to retirement had less traction than his those about terrorism and foreign affairs.

Despite the perception that Twitter is just a place for East and West coasters to talk to each other, Twitter’s map shows a surprising level of engagement in states like Wyoming, Utah, Texas, Mississippi and Oklahoma. The opposite proved true for New Hampshire and Vermont, where Twitter noted it was not able to collect enough data to draw conclusions.

Read More..

Petraeus’s Lower C.I.A. Profile Leaves Benghazi Void





WASHINGTON — In 14 months as C.I.A. director, David H. Petraeus has shunned the spotlight he once courted as America’s most famous general. His low-profile style has won the loyalty of the White House, easing old tensions with President Obama, and he has overcome some of the skepticism he faced from the agency’s work force, which is always wary of the military brass.







Brendan Smialowski/Getty Images

The low-profile style of David H. Petraeus, right, has won the loyalty of the White House, easing old tensions with President Obama.








Win Mcnamee/Getty Images

C.I.A. director, David H. Petraeus, right, appeared before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence in Washington in January.






But since an attack killed four Americans seven weeks ago in Benghazi, Libya, his deliberately low profile, and the C.I.A.’s penchant for secrecy, have left a void that has been filled by a news media and Congressional furor over whether it could have been prevented. Rather than acknowledge the C.I.A.’s presence in Benghazi, Mr. Petraeus and other agency officials fought a losing battle to keep it secret, even as the events there became a point of contention in the presidential campaign.


Finally, on Thursday, with Mr. Petraeus away on a visit to the Middle East, pressure from critics prompted intelligence officials to give their own account of the chaotic night when two security officers died along with the American ambassador, J. Christopher Stevens, and another diplomat. The officials acknowledged for the first time that the security officers, both former members of the Navy SEALs, worked on contract for the C.I.A., which occupied one of the buildings that were attacked.


The Benghazi crisis is the biggest challenge so far in the first civilian job held by Mr. Petraeus, who retired from the Army and dropped the “General” when he went to the C.I.A. He gets mostly high marks from government colleagues and outside experts for his overall performance. But the transition has meant learning a markedly different culture, at an agency famously resistant to outsiders.


“I think he’s a brilliant man, but he’s also a four-star general,” said Senator Dianne Feinstein, the chairwoman of the Senate Intelligence Committee. “Four-stars are saluted, not questioned. He’s now running an agency where everything is questioned, whether you’re a four-star or a senator. It’s a culture change.”


Mr. Petraeus, who turns 60 next week, has had to learn that C.I.A. officers will not automatically defer to his judgments, as military subordinates often did. “The attitude at the agency is, ‘You may be the director, but I’m the Thailand analyst,’ ” said one C.I.A. veteran.


Long a media star as the most prominent military leader of his generation, Mr. Petraeus abruptly abandoned that style at the C.I.A. Operating amid widespread complaints about leaks of classified information, he has stopped giving interviews, speaks to Congress in closed sessions and travels the globe to consult with foreign spy services with little news media notice.


“He thinks he has to be very discreet and let others in the government do the talking,” said Michael E. O’Hanlon, a Brookings Institution scholar who is a friend of Mr. Petraeus’s and a member of the C.I.A.’s advisory board.


Mr. Petraeus’s no-news, no-nonsense style stands out especially starkly against that of his effusive predecessor, Leon E. Panetta, who is now the defense secretary.


Mr. Panetta, a gregarious politician by profession, was unusually open with Congress and sometimes with the public — to a fault, some might say, when he spoke candidly after leaving the C.I.A. about a Pakistani doctor’s role in helping hunt for Osama bin Laden, or about the agency’s drone operations.


Mr. Petraeus’s discretion and relentless work ethic have had a positive side for him: old tensions with Mr. Obama, which grew out of differing views on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, appear to be gone. Mr. Petraeus is at the White House several times a week, attending National Security Council sessions and meeting weekly with James R. Clapper Jr., the director of national intelligence, and Thomas E. Donilon, Mr. Obama’s national security adviser. Mr. Donilon said recently that the C.I.A. director “has done an exceptional job,” bringing “deep experience, intellectual rigor and enthusiasm” to his work.


Read More..

Modest Jobs Growth in Final Report Before Election





The economy may have some more underlying strength than earlier believed, according to the final job market report released before Tuesday’s presidential election.




The nation’s employers added 171,000 positions in October, the Labor Department reported on Friday, and more jobs than initially estimated in both August and September. Hiring was broad-based, with just about every industry except state government adding at least a handful of jobs. The unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 7.9 percent in October, from 7.8 percent in September, but for a good reason: more workers joined the labor force and so officially counted as unemployed.


None of this makes for a game-changer in the presidential race, analysts said. But it appeared to provide some relief for President Obama, whose campaign could have been sideswiped by bad news from the volatile monthly jobs report.


With the latest numbers, the economy finally shows a net gain of jobs under his presidency; his record had previously been weighed down by huge layoffs in his first year in office.


The report also allayed widespread suspicion that September’s plunge in the unemployment rate — to below 8 percent for the first time since the month he took office — might have been a one-month statistical fluke.


“Generally, the report shows that things are better than we’d expected and certainly better than we’d thought a few months ago,” said Paul Dales, senior United States economist for Capital Economics. “But we’re still not making enough progress to bring that unemployment rate down significantly and rapidly.”


Mitt Romney, the Republican presidential nominee, said in a statement that the jobs report was evidence of the need to change the nation’s economic policies.


“Today’s increase in the unemployment rate is a sad reminder that the economy is at a virtual standstill,” he said. He also noted that October’s unemployment rate of 7.9 percent was higher than the 7.8 percent when Mr. Obama took office in January 2009.


Economists were hopeful that once the election was over and Congress addressed the major fiscal tightening scheduled for the end of this year, job growth could speed up further.


“If we can do this kind of job growth with all the uncertainty out there, imagine if we were to clear up those tax issues and hold back the majority of tax increases that are pending at the end of the year,” said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics. “We could do much better in 2013, maybe as well as we appeared to be doing earlier this year.”


In October, the biggest job gains were in professional and business services, health care and retail trade, the Labor Department said. Government payrolls dipped slightly. State and local governments have been shedding jobs most months over the last three years.


One of the lowlights of the report was in hourly wages, which remained flat in October after showing barely any growth in the previous several months.


“Perhaps the decline in real wages is a factor here in being able to employ more people,” Mr. Ryding said. “It’s something to keep in mind when we think about creating jobs and whether we’re maybe creating the wrong sort of jobs.”


A report from the National Employment Law Project, a liberal research and advocacy organization that focuses on labor issues, found that while the majority of jobs lost in the downturn were middle-income jobs, the majority of the jobs created since then have been lower-wage ones.


There have now been 25 consecutive months of jobs gains in the United States, but the increases have been barely large enough to absorb the increase in the population. A queue of about 12 million unemployed people remain waiting for work, about two out of five of whom have been out of a job for more than six months.


That is in addition to more than eight million people who are working part time but really want full-time jobs.


“I’m not just competing against all the other people who are out of work,” said Griff Coxey, 57, of Cascade, Wis., who was laid off in May from his controller job at a small business. “I’m also competing against all those people who are actually working but are underemployed.”


Like two million other idle workers, Mr. Coxey is scheduled to lose his unemployment benefits the last week of the year, when the federal extensions abruptly expire. He said he still had some savings to fall back on, but many workers do not.


Labor advocates and many economists have been urging Congress to renew the benefits as part of their discussions of the “fiscal cliff” during their postelection session. So far, though, the issue has received little attention, and analysts worry that ending extended benefits could disrupt what modest forward momentum the economy currently has.


“Federal unemployment benefits are one of the most effective stimuli we have,” said Christine L. Owens, the executive director of the National Employment Law Project.


“The recovery is still fragile,” she said, “and to pull that amount of income and expenditure out of the economy — particularly at a time when people thinking about the holiday season — will have a significant impact on not just those individuals and their families but the economy as a whole.”


Friday’s jobs report was unlikely to affect policy from the Federal Reserve, which has pledged open-ended stimulus until the job market improves “substantially.”


“The Fed desires both a substantial and sustainable improvement in labor market conditions and is likely to read recent payroll growth as a positive step in the right direction, but just one step in a longer journey,” said Michael Gapen, director of United States research and global asset allocation at Barclays Capital.


The jobs snapshot for October was based on surveys conducted too early in the month to capture work disruptions across the East Coast caused by Hurricane Sandy. Economists expect that businesses and employment will resume their normal activity by the next jobs survey, in mid-November, and that some industries are likely to show an increase in hiring because of the storm.


“We had a lot of lost hours worked and production stuff still delayed, but much of that will be offsets by hiring of emergency workers, government workers and construction, to do all that emergency fixing,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial.


Read More..

Well: Really? Natural Disasters Can Influence Birthrates

THE FACTS

A sociologist once remarked that a blackout can produce a boom in birthrates. When the lights go out, he said, people are left to interact with each other.

Really?

Anahad O’Connor tackles health myths.

All levity aside, there are some researchers who believe that large-scale disasters can influence birthrates. Psychologists say it comes down to attachment theory on attachment: that catastrophes, in short, have a way of driving people together and influencing major life decisions.

In a study published in The Journal of Family Psychology in 2002, researchers examined data on marriage, birth and divorce rates across South Carolina from 1975 to 1997. They found, as predicted, that in 1990, the year after Hurricane Hugo struck, marriages and births spiked in the 24 counties declared disaster areas. But so, too, did divorce rates, a finding the researchers hadn’t expected.

The findings suggested, they wrote, that the life-threatening hurricane had motivated many people to take “significant action in their close relationships that altered their life course.”

In another study, published in the journal Demography in 2005, a team of psychologists found that birthrates climbed in Oklahoma after the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995.

But some studies have found evidence of a reverse phenomenon. One, published in The Journal of Population Economics in 2010, used data on hurricanes and storm advisories to look at births in 47 counties along the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts from 1995 to 2001. It found that “high-severity advisories” had a significant “negative fertility effect.” And a study of decades of data in Italy and Japan found similar decreases in fertility after earthquakes.

Disasters, the author argued, perhaps make people less willing to make the long-term investments required to raise a family, and disruptions in family life and loss of homes and jobs may also contribute to declines in birthrates.

THE BOTTOM LINE

There is evidence that large-scale catastrophes may influence birth and marriage rates, but in which direction is not clear.

Read More..

Well: Really? Natural Disasters Can Influence Birthrates

THE FACTS

A sociologist once remarked that a blackout can produce a boom in birthrates. When the lights go out, he said, people are left to interact with each other.

Really?

Anahad O’Connor tackles health myths.

All levity aside, there are some researchers who believe that large-scale disasters can influence birthrates. Psychologists say it comes down to attachment theory on attachment: that catastrophes, in short, have a way of driving people together and influencing major life decisions.

In a study published in The Journal of Family Psychology in 2002, researchers examined data on marriage, birth and divorce rates across South Carolina from 1975 to 1997. They found, as predicted, that in 1990, the year after Hurricane Hugo struck, marriages and births spiked in the 24 counties declared disaster areas. But so, too, did divorce rates, a finding the researchers hadn’t expected.

The findings suggested, they wrote, that the life-threatening hurricane had motivated many people to take “significant action in their close relationships that altered their life course.”

In another study, published in the journal Demography in 2005, a team of psychologists found that birthrates climbed in Oklahoma after the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995.

But some studies have found evidence of a reverse phenomenon. One, published in The Journal of Population Economics in 2010, used data on hurricanes and storm advisories to look at births in 47 counties along the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts from 1995 to 2001. It found that “high-severity advisories” had a significant “negative fertility effect.” And a study of decades of data in Italy and Japan found similar decreases in fertility after earthquakes.

Disasters, the author argued, perhaps make people less willing to make the long-term investments required to raise a family, and disruptions in family life and loss of homes and jobs may also contribute to declines in birthrates.

THE BOTTOM LINE

There is evidence that large-scale catastrophes may influence birth and marriage rates, but in which direction is not clear.

Read More..

Gadgetwise Blog: App Smart Extra: More Movie Times

This week’s App Smart column was about apps that can help you find your way to the right movie theater to see the film you want to see at a time you want to see it.

Luckily there are a huge number of different apps that say they can help you find where to see a movie. One of the most popular is the Flixster app, free on both iOS and Android. Like its rival Fandango it tries to do almost everything to help you decide which movie to see and then to get you to a theater. This app can also sell you tickets to see movies at participating theaters, and packs in review data from Rotten Tomatoes. As a couple of bonus features it also lets you manage your Netflix queue and there’s an option to stream and download some full-length movies to your device.

Despite Flixster’s complex functionality, this app somehow still manages to preserve a relatively simple design. The app has also been regularly updated to keep it running smoothly and showing relevant data–most recently just a few weeks ago.

Also worth remembering is the fact that Apple is one of the better places online to find new movie trailers, and that for some time now Apple has offered the chance to find movie showtimes and theater info via its trailers Web page. Since this page is accessible by smartphone web browser it may be just as useful as a dedicated movie showtimes app. Plus it comes with Apple’s clear and simple design.

You can also search the app stores for an app that matches your favorite movie theater company, as many of these maintain their own apps. Landmark, which shows a lot of indie films, has its own free app. Some of these companies are also country-specific, and may be the best place to find local data when touring. Visiting Great Britain., for example, you could check out the Odeon app (free on iTunes), which even includes times for this brand’s famous Leicester Square cinema. UCI’s free iOS app would probably serve you well if you’re in Italy, and so on.

Extra Quick Call

With the arrival of its new operating system Windows 8, Microsoft has updated its free Smartglass app with a list of new features. The app’s designed to work as a second screen companion to your Xbox 360, showing data on your games and TV shows and also letting you control your Xbox. The app is one of the earliest Windows 8 apps out there.

Read More..

Guinea-Bissau, After Coup, Is Drug-Trafficking Haven


Agence France-Presse — Getty Images


Guinea-Bissau soldiers patrolled a street in the capital, Bissau, on Oct. 21 after dissident soldiers raided an army barracks in an apparent attempt to topple the military junta.







BISSAU, Guinea-Bissau — When the army ousted the president here just months before his term was to expire, a thirst for power by the officer corps did not fully explain the offensive. But a sizable increase in drug trafficking in this troubled country since the military took over has raised suspicions that the president’s sudden removal was what amounted to a cocaine coup.




The military brass here has long been associated with drug trafficking, but the coup last spring means soldiers now control the drug racket and the country itself, turning Guinea-Bissau in the eyes of some international counternarcotics experts into a nation where illegal drugs are sanctioned at the top.


“They are probably the worst narco-state that’s out there on the continent,” said a senior Drug Enforcement Administration official in Washington, who spoke on the condition of anonymity so as not to jeopardize his work in the region. “They are a major problem.”


Since the April 12 coup, more small twin-engine planes than ever are making the 1,600-mile Atlantic crossing from Latin America to the edge of Africa’s western bulge, landing in Guinea-Bissau’s fields, uninhabited islands and remote estuaries. There they unload their cargos of cocaine for transshipment north, experts say.


The fact that the army has put in place a figurehead government and that military officers continue to call the shots behind the scenes only intensifies the problem.


The political instability continued as soldiers attacked an army barracks on Oct. 21, apparently in an attempt to topple the government. A dissident army captain was arrested on an offshore island on Oct. 27 and accused of being the organizer of the countercoup attempt. Two critics of the government were also assaulted and then left outside the capital.


From April to July there were at least 20 landings in Guinea-Bissau of small planes that United Nations officials suspected were drug flights — traffic that could represent more than half the estimated annual cocaine volume for the region. The planes need to carry a one-and-a-half-ton cargo to make the trans-Atlantic trip viable, officials say. Europe, already the destination for about 50 tons of cocaine annually from West Africa, United Nations officials say, could be in for a far greater flood.


Was the military coup itself a diversion for drug trafficking? Some experts point to signs that as the armed forces were seizing the presidency, taking over radio stations and arresting government officials, there was a flurry of drug activity on one of the islands of the Bijagós Archipelago, what amounted to a three-day offloading of suspicious sacks.


That surreptitious activity appears to have been simply a prelude.


“There has clearly been an increase in Guinea-Bissau in the last several months,” said Pierre Lapaque, head of the regional United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime for West and Central Africa. “We are seeing more and more drugs regularly arriving in this country.”


Mr. Lapaque called the trafficking in Guinea-Bissau “a major worry” and an “open sore,” and, like others, suggested that it was no coincidence that trafficking had spiked since the coup.


Joaquin Gonzalez-Ducay, the European Union ambassador in Bissau, said: “As a country it is controlled by those who formed the coup d’état. They can do what they want to do. Now they have free rein.”


The senior D.E.A. official said, “People at the highest levels of the military are involved in the facilitation” of trafficking, and added: “In other African countries government officials are part of the problem. In Guinea-Bissau, it is the government itself that is the problem.”


United Nations officials agree. “The coup was perpetrated by people totally embedded in the drugs business,” said one official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the delicacy of the political environment here.


The country’s former prosecutor general, Octávio Inocêncio Alves, said, “A lot of the traffickers have direct relationships with the military.”


The civilian government and the military leadership that sits watchfully in its headquarters in an old Portuguese fort at the other end of town reject the United Nations drug accusations.


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Live Coverage: More Dead Found in Storm’s Wreckage




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DealBook: Stocks Little Changed as Market Reopens

The major stock indexes were little changed in light trading on Wednesday morning as the market reopened after a two-day shutdown caused by Hurricane Sandy.

A bevy of TV news crews and camera-toting tourists thronged the New York Stock Exchange for the opening, but the trading floor betrayed little that was unusual.

A small crowd enveloped Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg of New York City as he briefly stepped onto the floor to greet exchange workers. He later took to the balcony overlooking the pits to ring the opening bell, flanked by Duncan L. Niederauer, the chief executive of NYSE Euronext, and Robert Steel, a deputy mayor.

As the familiar clang rang through the hall for the first time this week, a small cheer erupted from the floor.

The dozen staffers at “the ramp,” an important N.Y.S.E. nerve center on the floor, scanned a wall of monitors to check on market activity.

Hurricane Sandy Multimedia

Milling about the floor was Lawrence E. Leibowitz, NYSE Euronext’s chief operating officer, checking on the state of operations. It was his second straight day at the exchange, having slept there overnight after wading from his home to Wall Street.

“There have been very few, very isolated problems,” Mr. Leibowitz said. He pointed to blank monitors that were shut off because the data provider was delivering incorrect market data.

“If that’s the worst of our problems,’ he added, “we’re in good shape.”

Mr. Niederauer seemed pleased as well. Wednesday was his first day back at the exchange since last week, having worked remotely because he could not come into the city.

“We’re pleased to see the turnout of staff,” he said, with many market makers being nearly fully represented.

He said many technical issues had been resolved, though technicians from Verizon were on hand to patch spotty communications and network connections. Many trading firms resorted to sharing working Internet and phone lines, while specialists ducked outside to get cellphone service unavailable on the floor.

At midday, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 0.11 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was 0.16 percent lower and the Nasdaq composite index was off 0.55 percent.

Several specialists said that in some ways, the morning had been easier than expected. Commuting was smoother, they said, with little traffic on the roads. And the exchange provided special dispensation to park on nearby streets.

Jonathan D. Corpina, a senior managing partner at Meridian Equity Partners, came armed with a flashlight to navigate the darkened streets of Lower Manhattan. But he found it easy to find the exchange, which was illuminated thanks to backup generators, and dive into work.

“We’re here filling orders, and it’s business as usual,” he said.

Another trader, Peter Costa, said he had noticed little that was out of the ordinary, except perhaps slightly lower volume.

“To me, this feels like a Monday,” he said, “but on a Wednesday.”

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Global Update: Gates Foundation Backs Hospital Transportation for Expectant Mothers


Finbarr O’Reilly/Reuters







The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has given a $5 million grant to a Massachusetts nonprofit group to work on a very specific problem: how to get new mothers in Ghana to hospitals.


Child mortality is very high in Ghana, but many newborns can be saved if the mother gives birth with someone trained, even rudimentarily, in Western medicine and if the baby is seen within two days by a doctor or nurse.


But in rural Ghana, explained Dr. Pierre M. Barker, vice president of the Institute for Healthcare Improvement, which received the Gates grant, there are many obstacles. Besides the obvious, like rutted roads, there are prejudices against wives or newborns leaving the house.


Sending expert committees to visit village chiefs, he said, has turned many into advocates for getting women to clinics instead of giving birth with untrained local midwives who may be unable to diagnose pneumonia or who have habits that cause tetanus, like cutting umbilical cords with dirty blades.


Dr. Parker described how his agency helped set up a village meeting that produced a way to get women in labor to hospitals when they had no money. He expected villagers to donate funds. Instead, local minibus-taxi drivers proposed a deal: They would carry the women at no charge if, once they arrived, they were allowed to jump the line for paying passengers headed back home.


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Q & A: Why Does Some Hair Frizz When It’s Humid?





Q. Why does some hair frizz when it’s humid?




A. Counterintuitively, your hair may be too dry when it meets humid air, suggested Dr. Andrew Avarbock, a dermatologist at NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital/Weill Cornell Medical Center.


“Hair is composed primarily of lipids, water and a protein called keratin, important for hair strength and structure,” Dr. Avarbock said. “Alterations in these components affect the quality of hair. People with dry hair are the ones who mainly experience the frizz in humid weather. When it’s humid outside, dry or porous hair soaks up the excess water in the air, which alters interactions between keratin proteins.”


The outcome is swelling of the hair and breaks in its outer layer, called the cuticle, he said, resulting in the appearance of frizz.


“If hair is well moisturized, then environmental changes, such as in humidity, will have less impact on it,” Dr. Avarbock said.


Some kinds of hair are more prone to becoming frizzy, he said, including hair damaged by overheating, chemicals for coloring and permanent waves or vigorous brushing. Overuse of shampoos and alcohol-based gels and sprays also promotes drying.


Hair products that moisturize the hair, like conditioners, can help prevent frizz, as can more gentle treatment over all. Both hair and skin “need moisturizer to maintain water content for an optimal appearance,” Dr. Avarbock said. C. CLAIBORNE RAY


Readers may submit questions by mail to Question, Science Times, The New York Times, 620 Eighth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10018, or by e-mail to question@nytimes.com.



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Yes, Driverless Cars Know the Way to San Jose


Google


ROBOTIC Aside from the lidar range-finder unit on its roof, Google’s fleet of self-driving vehicles, including this Lexus hybrid, look reasonably conventional.





THE “look Ma, no hands” moment came at about 60 miles an hour on Highway 101.


Brian Torcellini, Google’s driving program manager, had driven the white Lexus RX 450h out of the parking lot at one of the company’s research buildings and along local streets to the freeway, a main artery through Silicon Valley. But shortly after clearing the on-ramp and accelerating to the pace of traffic, he pushed a yellow button on the modified console between the front seats. A loud electronic chime came from the car’s speakers, followed by a synthesized female voice.


“Autodriving,” it announced breathlessly.


Mr. Torcellini took his hands off the steering wheel, lifted his foot from the accelerator, and the Lexus hybrid drove itself, following the curves of the freeway, speeding up to get out of another car’s blind spot, moving over slightly to stay well clear of a truck in the next lane, slowing when a car cut in front.


“We adjusted our speed to give him a little room,” said Anthony Levandowski, one of the lead engineers for Google’s self-driving-car project, who was monitoring the system on a laptop from the passenger seat. “Just like a person would.”


Since the project was first widely publicized more than two years ago, Google has been seen as being at the forefront of efforts to free humans from situations when driving is drudgery. In all, the company’s driverless cars — earlier-generation Toyota Priuses and the newer Lexuses, recognizable by their spinning, roof-mounted laser range finders — have logged about 300,000 miles on all kinds of roads. (Mr. Torcellini unofficially leads the pack, with roughly 30,000 miles behind the wheel — but not turning it.)


But the company is far from alone in its quest for a car that will drive just like a person would, or actually better. Most major automobile manufacturers are working on self-driving systems in one form or another.


Google says it does not want to make cars, but instead work with suppliers and automakers to bring its technology to the marketplace. The company sees the project as an outgrowth of its core work in software and data management, and talks about reimagining people’s relationship with their automobiles.


Self-driving cars, Mr. Levandowski said, will give people “the ability to move through space without necessarily wasting your time.”


Driving cars, he added, “is the most important thing that computers are going to do in the next 10 years.”


For the automakers, on the other hand, self-driving is more about evolution than revolution — about building incrementally upon existing features like smart cruise control and parking assist to make cars that are safer and easier to drive, although the driver is still in control. Full autonomy may be the eventual goal, but the first aim is to make cars more desirable to customers.


“We have this technology,” said Marcial Hernandez, principal engineer at the Volkswagen Group’s Electronics Research Laboratory, up the road in Belmont, Calif. “How do we turn it into a product that can be advertised to a customer, that will have some benefit to a customer?”


With all the research efforts, there is a growing consensus among transportation experts that self-driving cars are coming, sooner than later, and that the potential benefits — in crashes, deaths and injuries avoided, and in roads used more efficiently, to name a few — are enormous. Already, Florida, Nevada and California have made self-driving cars legal for testing purposes, giving each car, in effect, its own driver’s license.


Richard Wallace, director for transportation systems analysis at the Center for Automotive Research, a nonprofit group that recently released a report on self-driving cars with the consulting firm KPMG, said that probably by the end of the decade, “we would be able to have a safe, hands-free left-lane commute.” In 15 to 20 years, he said, “literally from the driveway to destination starts to become possible.”


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Live Coverage: Halting Return as Region Tallies Losses After Storm




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