Strategies: At Dell, a Gamble on a Legacy

IN 1984 — the year Mark Zuckerberg, the Facebook creator, was born — Michael S. Dell started a tech company in his dorm room, dropped out of college and changed the world.

By making personal computers that were powerful, reliable and inexpensive, and by selling directly to buyers who customized their PC features, Mr. Dell revolutionized his industry.

“The original PC industry was long on people with great technical ideas but short on people who were able to turn those ideas into opportunities — into products that people really wanted,” said Timothy Bresnahan, a Stanford economist. Along with Steve Jobs and Bill Gates, as well as Scott Cook of Intuit, Mr. Dell was one of those few great innovators, he said. “These people are very rare.”

Mr. Dell’s early achievements were formidable, but unless his latest effort to turn around his company is successful, the Dell legacy today is very much in doubt. Last week, along with Silver Lake Partners, a private equity firm, he made a $24.4 billion buyout offer for his company — an apparent bet that, without the scrutiny of public shareholders, he can get Dell back on track.

Dell, the company, has been losing ground for years as the industry it once dominated has undergone upheavals that its founder failed to foresee. “The very nature of technology is that it changes a lot,” said Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein. “And Michael has conceded publicly that he has missed some big changes — he failed to foresee smartphones or tablets — and both of these shifts have been highly detrimental to the PC world.”

He has lagged in a crucial area of corporate strategy as well, said Shaw Wu, an analyst at Sterne Agee in San Francisco. While Mr. Dell has always been attuned to the needs of corporate clients, he is 20 years behind I.B.M. in embracing a strategic shift to enterprise software and services, Mr. Wu said: “That’s a higher-margin business that Dell would like to go after, but I.B.M. and others have got tremendous leads. It will be very difficult for him to catch up.”

If Dell shareholders accept an offer price of $13.65 a share, Mr. Dell, who is contributing his stake of more than 14 percent in the company plus hundreds of millions more, would end up with more than 50 percent of the new company’s equity, Mr. Sacconaghi estimated. Mr. Dell, who declined to comment for this article, would control the company without being subject to the day-to-day pressures of the stock market, which has pummeled Dell shares because its earnings have weakened.

While Dell reports that 50 percent of its revenue is directly related to PCs, Mr. Wu says the figure is 70 to 80 percent when indirect revenue, like that for computer monitors, printers and services, is included. “The company has made big investments in other areas, but it’s still mainly a PC company,” he said.

That’s a big problem for several reasons. Once considered the low-cost provider in the field, Dell now faces lean Asian competitors like Lenovo, Asus and Acer that make PCs more cheaply and accept lower profit margins. Yet these companies, particularly Lenovo, have also garnered praise for making excellent computers, not merely well-priced ones. At the same time, Dell’s vaunted reputation for quality and service has waned.

Lenovo, which makes the ThinkPad line of notebook computers formerly sold by I.B.M., “has been picking up corporate customers from Dell,” Mr. Wu said.

THEN there is a deeper issue: the entire PC industry is stagnant at best. Worldwide PC shipments declined 4.9 percent in the fourth quarter, versus the year-earlier period, according to Gartner, a market research firm. Consumer preferences are shifting. With the ubiquity of smartphones and tablets — segments where Dell is absent or very weak — consumers aren’t replacing PCs as often.

“We don’t expect people to abandon PCs, but they won’t rely on them as much in the future,” said Mikako Kitagawa, a Gartner analyst. Dell’s share of this no-growth market has been shrinking, to 10.2 percent worldwide in the fourth quarter of 2012, from 12.2 percent the previous year, Gartner said.

Facing such headwinds, Mr. Sacconaghi said, Dell hopes to “hold PC profits flat or, worst case, down 5 percent a year, while they grow the rest of the business to more than offset that.” But the market is skeptical. Dell’s shares fell 30 percent in the 12 months before Jan. 14, when reports of an imminent buyout appeared.

The leveraged buyout will layer $15 billion of new debt on the company. Microsoft, with which Dell has had close ties, is providing $2 billion. Because interest rates are extraordinarily low, servicing all that debt should be manageable, assuming that Dell maintains its current cash flow, Mr. Sacconaghi said.

It’s not clear how much the debt load will constrain Dell’s investments in research and development. Josh Lerner, a Harvard Business School professor, said a study for which he was a co-author found that after leveraged buyouts, most companies maintained their ability to innovate, largely by focusing research in “their core competencies.”

In other words, he said, “Dell might be able to prosper after a buyout; it would depend on how Michael Dell manages the company.”

Is the price being offered for the company fair? It’s often unwise to bet against company insiders, especially founders like Mr. Dell, who may be presumed to know their companies’ value better than outside investors.

Consider John W. Kluge, who took Metromedia private in 1984 in a $1.1 billion leveraged buyout. Mr. Kluge, Metromedia’s founder, promptly liquidated it, selling television stations (to Rupert Murdoch) and sundry assets like the Harlem Globetrotters and the Ice Capades. In the end, Mr. Kluge tripled his take — to the chagrin of many former shareholders.

Mr. Kluge, who died in 2010, wasn’t interested in preserving his company or revolutionizing an industry, however. He merely wanted to make money. “When we buy an asset, we look at it as a return on the investment,” he said in 1980.

For Mr. Dell, whose name is on the door, other factors may be in play. “Another chapter is still to be written,” Mr. Bresnahan said. Money will be part of it. So will the Dell legacy.

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In Nigeria, Polio Vaccine Workers Are Killed by Gunmen

At least nine polio immunization workers were shot to death in northern Nigeria on Friday by gunmen who attacked two clinics, officials said.

The killings, with eerie echoes of attacks that killed nine female polio workers in Pakistan in December, represented another serious setback for the global effort to eradicate polio.

Most of the victims were women and were shot in the back of the head, local reports said.

A four-day vaccination drive had just ended in Kano State, where the killings took place, and the vaccinators were in a “mop-up” phase, looking for children who had been missed, said Sarah Crowe, a spokeswoman for the United Nations Children’s Fund, one of the agencies running the eradication campaign.

Dr. Mohammad Ali Pate, Nigeria’s minister of state for health, said in a telephone interview that it was not entirely clear whether the gunmen were specifically targeting polio workers or just attacking the health centers where vaccinators happened to be gathering early in the morning. “Health workers are soft targets,” he said.

No one immediately took responsibility, but suspicion fell on Boko Haram, a militant Islamist group that has attacked police stations, government offices and even a religious leader’s convoy.

Polio, which once paralyzed millions of children, is now down to fewer than 1,000 known cases around the world, and is endemic in only three countries: Nigeria, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Since September — when a new polio operations center was opened in the capital and Nigeria’s president, Goodluck Jonathan, appointed a special adviser for polio — the country had been improving, said Dr. Bruce Aylward, chief of polio eradication for the World Health Organization. There have been no new cases since Dec. 3.

While vaccinators have not previously been killed in the country, there is a long history of Nigerian Muslims shunning the vaccine.

Ten years ago, immunization was suspended for 11 months as local governors waited for local scientists to investigate rumors that it caused AIDS or was a Western plot to sterilize Muslim girls. That hiatus let cases spread across Africa. The Nigerian strain of the virus even reached Saudi Arabia when a Nigerian child living in hills outside Mecca was paralyzed.

Heidi Larson, an anthropologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who tracks vaccine issues, said the newest killings “are kind of mimicking what’s going on in Pakistan, and I feel it’s very much prompted by that.”

In a roundabout way, the C.I.A. has been blamed for the Pakistan killings. In its effort to track Osama bin Laden, the agency paid a Pakistani doctor to seek entry to Bin Laden’s compound on the pretext of vaccinating the children — presumably to get DNA samples as evidence that it was the right family. That enraged some Taliban factions in Pakistan, which outlawed vaccination in their areas and threatened vaccinators.

Nigerian police officials said the first shootings were of eight workers early in the morning at a clinic in the Tarauni neighborhood of Kano, the state capital; two or three died. A survivor said the two gunmen then set fire to a curtain, locked the doors and left.

“We summoned our courage and broke the door because we realized they wanted to burn us alive,” the survivor said from her bed at Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital.

About an hour later, six men on three-wheeled motorcycles stormed a clinic in the Haye neighborhood, a few miles away. They killed seven women waiting to collect vaccine.

Ten years ago, Dr. Larson said, she joined a door-to-door vaccination drive in northern Nigeria as a Unicef communications officer, “and even then we were trying to calm rumors that the C.I.A. was involved,” she said. The Iraq and Afghanistan wars had convinced poor Muslims in many countries that Americans hated them, and some believed the American-made vaccine was a plot by Western drug companies and intelligence agencies.

Since the vaccine ruse in Pakistan, she said, “Frankly, now, I can’t go to them and say, ‘The C.I.A. isn’t involved.’ ”

Dr. Pate said the attack would not stop the newly reinvigorated eradication drive, adding, “This isn’t going to deter us from getting everyone vaccinated to save the lives of our children.”

Aminu Abubakar contributed reported from Kano, Nigeria.

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In Nigeria, Polio Vaccine Workers Are Killed by Gunmen

At least nine polio immunization workers were shot to death in northern Nigeria on Friday by gunmen who attacked two clinics, officials said.

The killings, with eerie echoes of attacks that killed nine female polio workers in Pakistan in December, represented another serious setback for the global effort to eradicate polio.

Most of the victims were women and were shot in the back of the head, local reports said.

A four-day vaccination drive had just ended in Kano State, where the killings took place, and the vaccinators were in a “mop-up” phase, looking for children who had been missed, said Sarah Crowe, a spokeswoman for the United Nations Children’s Fund, one of the agencies running the eradication campaign.

Dr. Mohammad Ali Pate, Nigeria’s minister of state for health, said in a telephone interview that it was not entirely clear whether the gunmen were specifically targeting polio workers or just attacking the health centers where vaccinators happened to be gathering early in the morning. “Health workers are soft targets,” he said.

No one immediately took responsibility, but suspicion fell on Boko Haram, a militant Islamist group that has attacked police stations, government offices and even a religious leader’s convoy.

Polio, which once paralyzed millions of children, is now down to fewer than 1,000 known cases around the world, and is endemic in only three countries: Nigeria, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Since September — when a new polio operations center was opened in the capital and Nigeria’s president, Goodluck Jonathan, appointed a special adviser for polio — the country had been improving, said Dr. Bruce Aylward, chief of polio eradication for the World Health Organization. There have been no new cases since Dec. 3.

While vaccinators have not previously been killed in the country, there is a long history of Nigerian Muslims shunning the vaccine.

Ten years ago, immunization was suspended for 11 months as local governors waited for local scientists to investigate rumors that it caused AIDS or was a Western plot to sterilize Muslim girls. That hiatus let cases spread across Africa. The Nigerian strain of the virus even reached Saudi Arabia when a Nigerian child living in hills outside Mecca was paralyzed.

Heidi Larson, an anthropologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who tracks vaccine issues, said the newest killings “are kind of mimicking what’s going on in Pakistan, and I feel it’s very much prompted by that.”

In a roundabout way, the C.I.A. has been blamed for the Pakistan killings. In its effort to track Osama bin Laden, the agency paid a Pakistani doctor to seek entry to Bin Laden’s compound on the pretext of vaccinating the children — presumably to get DNA samples as evidence that it was the right family. That enraged some Taliban factions in Pakistan, which outlawed vaccination in their areas and threatened vaccinators.

Nigerian police officials said the first shootings were of eight workers early in the morning at a clinic in the Tarauni neighborhood of Kano, the state capital; two or three died. A survivor said the two gunmen then set fire to a curtain, locked the doors and left.

“We summoned our courage and broke the door because we realized they wanted to burn us alive,” the survivor said from her bed at Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital.

About an hour later, six men on three-wheeled motorcycles stormed a clinic in the Haye neighborhood, a few miles away. They killed seven women waiting to collect vaccine.

Ten years ago, Dr. Larson said, she joined a door-to-door vaccination drive in northern Nigeria as a Unicef communications officer, “and even then we were trying to calm rumors that the C.I.A. was involved,” she said. The Iraq and Afghanistan wars had convinced poor Muslims in many countries that Americans hated them, and some believed the American-made vaccine was a plot by Western drug companies and intelligence agencies.

Since the vaccine ruse in Pakistan, she said, “Frankly, now, I can’t go to them and say, ‘The C.I.A. isn’t involved.’ ”

Dr. Pate said the attack would not stop the newly reinvigorated eradication drive, adding, “This isn’t going to deter us from getting everyone vaccinated to save the lives of our children.”

Aminu Abubakar contributed reported from Kano, Nigeria.

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Japanese Still Seeking Link in 787 Battery Incidents

Japan’s investigation of a battery that was smoking on a Boeing 787 flight there last month has not yet determined if the incident started in the same way as a fire on another 787 in Boston, a Japanese official said Friday.

Akinobu Yokoyama, a spokesman for Japan’s Transport Safety Board, said it was still not clear whether a short-circuit or other malfunction occurred within one or more of the eight cells in the new lithium-ion battery.

His comments in an interview came a day after Deborah Hersman, the chairwoman of the National Transportation Safety Board, said that the problems on the Boston jet seemed to have originated in the battery. She said one of the cells had a short-circuit that created a “thermal runaway” as it cascaded through the rest of the cells, heating the battery to 500 degrees.

Given that the problems on the innovative jets occurred just nine days apart, it is crucial for investigators to determine whether they started in a similar manner. If the incidents seem to parallel one another, it could be easier for Boeing and its regulators to find a fix than if they are dealing with two different problems.

The Japanese investigation started later than the American one. Mr. Yokoyama said it was “not appropriate to talk yet about whether proximity of the cells within the battery is a structural problem or a cause of the battery malfunctions.”

“By looking at the battery, it is obvious there was a thermal runway,” he said. “But we have yet to determine with any certainty why that happened.”

Ms. Hersman said Thursday that American investigators still did not know what caused the short-circuit in the cell of the Boston battery. She also said that in certifying the lithium-ion batteries in 2007, the Federal Aviation Administration accepted test results from Boeing that seriously underestimated the risk of smoke or fire.

The 787 is the first commercial plane to use large lithium-ion batteries for major flight functions. The batteries are more volatile than conventional nickel-cadmium batteries, but they weigh less and create more power, contributing to a 20 percent gain in fuel economy over older planes.

All 50 of the 787s that have been delivered so far have been grounded since mid-January.

That has also stopped Boeing from delivering more of the planes. Two European carriers, Thomson Airways and Norwegian Air Shuttle, said Friday that Boeing had notified them that the deliveries they had expected soon would be delayed until the problems with the batteries could be resolved.

Boeing’s rival, Airbus, plans to use smaller — and it says safer — lithium-ion batteries in its next-generation A350 jets, which will compete with the 787. Airbus reiterated Friday that it was watching to see how the investigations of the Boeing battery turned out.

“There is nothing that prevents us from going back to a classical battery on the A350, which we’ve been studying in parallel to the lithium battery from the beginning,” said Justin Dubon, an Airbus spokesman in Toulouse.

Hiroko Tabuchi reported from Tokyo. Nicola Clark contributed reporting from Paris.

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The New Old Age: The Executor's Assistant

I’m serving as executor for my father’s estate, a role few of us are prepared for until we’re playing it, so I was grateful when the mail brought “The American Bar Association Guide to Wills and Estates” — the fourth edition of a handbook the A.B.A. began publishing in 1995.

This is a legal universe, I’m learning, in which every step — even with a small, simple estate that owes no taxes and includes no real estate or trusts — turns out to be at least 30 percent more complicated than expected.

If my dad had been wealthy or owned a business, or if we faced a challenge to his will, I would have turned the whole matter over to an estate lawyer by now. But even then, it would be helpful to know what the lawyer was talking about. The A.B.A. guide would help.

Written with surprising clarity (hey, they’re lawyers), it maps out all kinds of questions and decisions to consider and explains the many ways to leave property to one’s heirs. Updated from the third edition in 2009, the guide not only talks taxes and trusts, but also offers counsel for same-sex couples and unconventional families.

If you want to permit your second husband to live in the family home until he dies, but then guarantee that the house reverts to the children of your first marriage, the guide tells you how a “life estate” works. It explains what is taxable and what isn’t, and discusses how to choose executors and trustees. It lists lots of resources and concludes with an estate-planning checklist.

In general, the A.B.A. intends its guide for the person trying to put his or her affairs in order, more than for family members trying to figure out how to proceed after someone has died. But many of us will play both these parts at some point (and if you are already an executor, or have been, please tell us how that has gone, and mention your state). We’ll need this information.

Editor’s Note: More information about “The American Bar Association Guide to Wills and Estates” can be found here.

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Paula Span is the author of “When the Time Comes: Families With Aging Parents Share Their Struggles and Solutions.”

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The New Old Age: The Executor's Assistant

I’m serving as executor for my father’s estate, a role few of us are prepared for until we’re playing it, so I was grateful when the mail brought “The American Bar Association Guide to Wills and Estates” — the fourth edition of a handbook the A.B.A. began publishing in 1995.

This is a legal universe, I’m learning, in which every step — even with a small, simple estate that owes no taxes and includes no real estate or trusts — turns out to be at least 30 percent more complicated than expected.

If my dad had been wealthy or owned a business, or if we faced a challenge to his will, I would have turned the whole matter over to an estate lawyer by now. But even then, it would be helpful to know what the lawyer was talking about. The A.B.A. guide would help.

Written with surprising clarity (hey, they’re lawyers), it maps out all kinds of questions and decisions to consider and explains the many ways to leave property to one’s heirs. Updated from the third edition in 2009, the guide not only talks taxes and trusts, but also offers counsel for same-sex couples and unconventional families.

If you want to permit your second husband to live in the family home until he dies, but then guarantee that the house reverts to the children of your first marriage, the guide tells you how a “life estate” works. It explains what is taxable and what isn’t, and discusses how to choose executors and trustees. It lists lots of resources and concludes with an estate-planning checklist.

In general, the A.B.A. intends its guide for the person trying to put his or her affairs in order, more than for family members trying to figure out how to proceed after someone has died. But many of us will play both these parts at some point (and if you are already an executor, or have been, please tell us how that has gone, and mention your state). We’ll need this information.

Editor’s Note: More information about “The American Bar Association Guide to Wills and Estates” can be found here.

---

Paula Span is the author of “When the Time Comes: Families With Aging Parents Share Their Struggles and Solutions.”

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State of the Art: Microsoft’s Surface Pro Works Like a Tablet and a PC

For decades, Microsoft has subsisted on the milk of its two cash cows: Windows and Office. The company’s occasional ventures into hardware generally haven’t ended well: *cough* Zune, Kin Phone, Spot Watch *cough*.

But the new Surface Pro tablet, which goes on sale Saturday, seemed to have more going for it than any Microsoft hardware since the Xbox.

Everybody knows what a tablet is, right? It’s a black touch-screen slab, like an iPad or an Android tablet. It doesn’t run real Windows or Mac software — it runs much simpler apps. It’s not a real computer.

But with the Surface Pro ($900 for the 64-gigabyte model, $1,000 for a 128-gig machine), Microsoft asks: Why not?

The Surface Pro looks like a tablet. It can work like a tablet. You can hold it in one hand and draw on it with the other. It even comes with a plastic stylus that works beautifully.

But inside, the Pro is a full-blown Windows PC, with the same Intel chip that powers many high-end laptops, and even two fans to keep it cool (they’re silent). As a result, the Pro can run any of the four million Windows programs, like iTunes, Photoshop, Quicken, and, of course, Word, Excel and PowerPoint.

The Surface Pro is beautiful. It’s clad in matte-black metal, beveled at the edges like a Stealth helicopter. Its connectors immediately suggest its post-iPad capabilities, like a memory-card slot for expanded storage. The screen is bright and beautiful, with 1080p high-definition resolution (1,080 by 1,820) — but when you connect the tablet to a TV or desktop monitor, it can send out an even bigger, sharper picture (2,550 by 1,440). There’s one USB 3.0 jack in the tablet, and a second ingeniously built into the power cord, so you can charge your phone as you work. Or you can connect anything you’d connect to a PC: external drives, flash drives, keyboard, mouse, speakers, cameras and so on.

Are you getting it? This is a PC, not an iPad.

As though to hammer home that point, Microsoft has endowed the Surface Pro with two unusual extras that complete the transformation from tablet to PC in about two seconds.

First, this tablet has a kickstand. It’s a thin metal flap that disappears completely when closed, but holds the tablet at a nice angle when you’re working or watching a movie.

Second, you can buy Microsoft’s now-famous keyboard cover. There are two models, actually. One is about as thick as a shirt cardboard. You can type on it — slowly — but you’re tapping drawings of keys, not actual keys. It’s called the Touch Cover ($100 with Surface purchase).

The other keyboard, the Type Cover ($130) is thicker — a quarter-inch — but its keys really travel, and it has a trackpad. You can really type on this thing.

Either keyboard attaches to the tablet with a powerful magnetic click. For tablet use, you can flip either keyboard around to the back; it disables itself so you don’t type gibberish by accident.

And if you really want to go whole hog with the insta-PC idea, you should also spring for the matching Wedge Touch mouse. It’s a tiny $70 cordless wedge, not much bigger than the AA battery that powers it, with supercrisp buttons and a touch surface on top for scrolling.

Now, when I wrote a first-look post on my blog last month , I was surprised by the reader reactions. Over and over, they posted the same argument:

“For that money, I could buy a very nice lightweight laptop with a dedicated keyboard and much more storage. Why should I buy Surface Pro when I can have more for less?”

Why? Because the Surface Pro does things most laptops can’t do. Like it weighs two pounds, with touch screen. Or work in portrait orientation, like a clipboard. Or remain comfortable in one hand as you make medical rounds, take inventory or sketch a portrait. Or stay in a bag through airport security (the TSA says tablets are O.K. to stay in).

You also hear: “But haven’t there been full-blown PC tablets before?”

Yes, there are a couple. But without the kickstand and keyboard cover, they can’t change instantly into a desktop computer.

So it’s true: for this much money, you could buy a very nice laptop. You could also buy a five-day cruise, a Gucci handbag or 250 gallons of milk. They just happen to be different beasts.

All right then: the Surface Pro is fast, flexible and astonishingly compact for what it does; that much is unassailable. But in practice, there are some disappointments and confusions.

E-mail: pogue@nytimes.com

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: February 8, 2013

An earlier version of this column gave an incorrect price from the company for the Wedge Touch mouse for the Surface. It is $70, not $40.

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U.N. Calls on Papua New Guinea to Curb Violence After Burning Death of Woman

GENEVA — Spurred by the killing this week of a young woman accused of witchcraft in Papua New Guinea, the United Nations on Friday called on the country to address increasing vigilante violence against people accused of sorcery and to revoke a controversial sorcery law.

The United Nations human rights office in Geneva said it was deeply disturbed by the killing of the woman, Kepari Leniata, 20, who was stripped, tortured, doused in gasoline and set on fire on Wednesday as hundreds of spectators watched.

The killing in Mount Hagen, the Western Highlands provincial capital, reportedly was carried out by relatives of a 6-year-old boy who, they claimed, had been killed by her sorcery. The crowd blocked police officers and firefighters who tried to intervene.

“This case adds to the growing pattern of vigilante attacks and killings of persons accused of sorcery in Papua New Guinea,” Cecile Pouilly, a spokeswoman for the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, told reporters in Geneva.

Ms. Pouilly said that police were continuing their investigation of a case in Jiwaka Province in November, when people held three women and two men for 20 days for allegedly using sorcery to kill another person, torturing them with iron rods and knives heated over fires before killing them.

According to Amnesty International, violence against those accused of sorcery is endemic in Papua New Guinea. In a statement on Friday, the human rights organization cited reports that in July, the police arrested 29 members of a witch-hunting gang who were murdering and cannibalizing people they suspected of sorcery.

A United Nations investigator who visited Papua New Guinea in March also found that women, particularly widows and those with no other family members to protect them, were disproportionately affected by the violence against suspected sorcerers, which included torture, rape, mutilations and murder.

“I was shocked to witness the brutality of the assaults perpetrated against suspected sorcerers,” the investigator, Rashida Manjoo, said in a statement after her visit, reporting that many of the people she interviewed said sorcery accusations were commonly used to deprive women of their land and property.

“Any misfortune or death within the community can be used as an excuse to accuse such a person of being a sorcerer,” Ms. Manjoo said.

Attacks often were carried out by young men and boys acting on the instruction of their community and under the influence of alcohol and drugs given to them, Ms. Manjoo said she was told. They also often acted with impunity, she said, because witnesses feared talking to the police and followed a social tradition of “wantok” or solidarity.

Responding to Wednesday’s attack in Mount Hagen, the United Nations human rights office and Amnesty International urged Papua New Guinea’s government to implement the recommendations of a constitutional commission that called in November for the repeal of the country’s sorcery law.

Human rights groups say the 1971 law, which criminalizes sorcery and recognizes the accusation of sorcery as a defense in murder cases, contributes to the violence. The commission’s report and recommendations, however, have not yet been presented to the country’s Parliament, Ms. Pouilly said. “We don’t know why nothing has been done since November,” she said.

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Media Decoder Blog: Led by Celebrity Titles, Magazine Newsstand Sales Slide

2:11 p.m. | Updated As the magazine industry continues to suffer from declining circulation, celebrity gossip magazines and young women’s titles have taken some of the biggest hits.

According to data released by the Alliance for Audited Media on Thursday morning, overall paid and verified circulation of magazines declined slightly by 0.3 percent in the second half of 2012. But newsstand sales – which are often viewed as the best barometer of how well a magazine is doing – dropped by 8.2 percent.

These figures were far worse for celebrity magazines, which largely suffered double-digit declines. People’s newsstand sales dropped by 12.2 percent while US Weekly experienced a 14.6 percent decline. In Touch Weekly declined by 14.8 percent and Life & Style Weekly suffered a 19.1 percent drop on newsstands.

Some young women’s magazines like Cosmopolitan and Glamour, which often attract an overlapping audience as celebrity magazines, also suffered major hits. Cosmopolitan had an 18.5 percent decline in newsstand sales while Glamour’s newsstand sales declined by 14.5 percent.

John Harrington, an industry consultant, said that both categories are suffering because young women can access a lot of similar content online.

“They’re fighting all the social media and information that’s just available in so many places,” said Mr. Harrington about the kinds of pressures these magazines are under. “Some of the same factors are that their audience are people who are digitally adept and tend to go to social media.”
While all magazines reported a rise in digital subscribers and the number of average digital magazine copies more than doubled from the year before, these numbers still make up less than 2.4 percent of the entire magazine industry’s average circulation.

Industry experts said that magazines also suffered from what was and was not happening in the world. Steven Cohn, editor of the Media Industry Newsletter, said that celebrity weeklies didn’t benefit from the boom that comes from celebrity weddings, births or deaths in recent months. He expects that business prospects may improve for these titles in the second half of the year after Prince William and Kate Middleton have their first child.

“In the second half of 2012, there was no royal wedding. There was no tragedy like the death of Michael Jackson,” said Mr. Cohen. “They should get a bump by the royal birth.”

Mr. Cohen added that Hurricane Sandy also may have hurt newsstand sales. He noted that even during an election year, Time Inc. experienced a decline in newsstand sales. Newsstand sales for the magazine declined to 58,776 in the second half of 2012 from 76,555 from the same time in 2011.

“I think Sandy is a factor,” said Mr. Cohen. “It certainly hurt newsstand in New York and New Jersey, which is the biggest market in the country.”

While Family Circle and Woman’s Day both noted rises in their newsstand sales, Mr. Harrington said that both magazines had cut back their frequency of publication to 12 times a year from 15 times a year. Both magazines also are relatively inexpensive.

“That helped their average newsstand sales and they’re still relatively lower priced items,” said Mr. Harrington.

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Well: Expressing the Inexpressible

When Kyle Potvin learned she had breast cancer at the age of 41, she tracked the details of her illness and treatment in a journal. But when it came to grappling with issues of mortality, fear and hope, she found that her best outlet was poetry.

How I feared chemo, afraid
It would change me.
It did.
Something dissolved inside me.
Tears began a slow drip;
I cried at the news story
Of a lost boy found in the woods …
At the surprising beauty
Of a bright leaf falling
Like the last strand of hair from my head

Ms. Potvin, now 47 and living in Derry, N.H., recently published “Sound Travels on Water” (Finishing Line Press), a collection of poems about her experience with cancer. And she has organized the Prickly Pear Poetry Project, a series of workshops for cancer patients.

“The creative process can be really healing,” Ms. Potvin said in an interview. “Loss, mortality and even hopefulness were on my mind, and I found that through writing poetry I was able to express some of those concepts in a way that helped me process what I was thinking.”

In April, the National Association for Poetry Therapy, whose members include both medical doctors and therapists, is to hold a conference in Chicago with sessions on using poetry to manage pain and to help adolescents cope with bullying. And this spring, Tasora Books will publish “The Cancer Poetry Project 2,” an anthology of poems written by patients and their loved ones.

Dr. Rafael Campo, an associate professor of medicine at Harvard, says he uses poetry in his practice, offering therapy groups and including poems with the medical forms and educational materials he gives his patients.

“It’s always striking to me how they want to talk about the poems the next time we meet and not the other stuff I give them,” he said. “It’s such a visceral mode of expression. When our bodies betray us in such a profound way, it can be all the more powerful for patients to really use the rhythms of poetry to make sense of what is happening in their bodies.”

On return visits, Dr. Campo’s patients often begin by discussing a poem he gave them — for example, “At the Cancer Clinic,” by Ted Kooser, from his collection “Delights & Shadows” (Copper Canyon Press, 2004), about a nurse holding the door for a slow-moving patient.

How patient she is in the crisp white sails
of her clothes. The sick woman
peers from under her funny knit cap
to watch each foot swing scuffing forward
and take its turn under her weight.
There is no restlessness or impatience
or anger anywhere in sight. Grace
fills the clean mold of this moment
and all the shuffling magazines grow still.

In Ms. Potvin’s case, poems related to her illness were often spurred by mundane moments, like seeing a neighbor out for a nightly walk. Here is “Tumor”:

My neighbor walks
For miles each night.
A mantra drives her, I imagine
As my boys’ chant did
The summer of my own illness:
“Push, Mommy, push.”
Urging me to wind my sore feet
Winch-like on a rented bike
To inch us home.
I couldn’t stop;
Couldn’t leave us
Miles from the end.

Karin Miller, 48, of Minneapolis, turned to poetry 15 years ago when her husband developed testicular cancer at the same time she was pregnant with their first child.

Her husband has since recovered, and Ms. Miller has reviewed thousands of poems by cancer patients and their loved ones to create the “Cancer Poetry Project” anthologies. One poem is “Hymn to a Lost Breast,” by Bonnie Maurer.

Oh let it fly
let it fling
let it flip like a pancake in the air
let it sing: what is the song
of one breast flapping?

Another is “Barn Wish” by Kim Knedler Hewett.

I sit where you can’t see me
Listening to the rustle of papers and pills in the other room,
Wondering if you can hear them.
Let’s go back to the barn, I whisper.
Let’s turn on the TV and watch the Bengals lose.
Let’s eat Bill’s Doughnuts and drink Pepsi.
Anything but this.

Ms. Miller has asked many of her poets to explain why they find poetry healing. “They say it’s the thing that lets them get to the core of how they are feeling,” she said. “It’s the simplicity of poetry, the bare bones of it, that helps them deal with their fears.”

---

Have you written a poem about cancer? Please share them with us in the comments section below.

Read More..

Well: Expressing the Inexpressible

When Kyle Potvin learned she had breast cancer at the age of 41, she tracked the details of her illness and treatment in a journal. But when it came to grappling with issues of mortality, fear and hope, she found that her best outlet was poetry.

How I feared chemo, afraid
It would change me.
It did.
Something dissolved inside me.
Tears began a slow drip;
I cried at the news story
Of a lost boy found in the woods …
At the surprising beauty
Of a bright leaf falling
Like the last strand of hair from my head

Ms. Potvin, now 47 and living in Derry, N.H., recently published “Sound Travels on Water” (Finishing Line Press), a collection of poems about her experience with cancer. And she has organized the Prickly Pear Poetry Project, a series of workshops for cancer patients.

“The creative process can be really healing,” Ms. Potvin said in an interview. “Loss, mortality and even hopefulness were on my mind, and I found that through writing poetry I was able to express some of those concepts in a way that helped me process what I was thinking.”

In April, the National Association for Poetry Therapy, whose members include both medical doctors and therapists, is to hold a conference in Chicago with sessions on using poetry to manage pain and to help adolescents cope with bullying. And this spring, Tasora Books will publish “The Cancer Poetry Project 2,” an anthology of poems written by patients and their loved ones.

Dr. Rafael Campo, an associate professor of medicine at Harvard, says he uses poetry in his practice, offering therapy groups and including poems with the medical forms and educational materials he gives his patients.

“It’s always striking to me how they want to talk about the poems the next time we meet and not the other stuff I give them,” he said. “It’s such a visceral mode of expression. When our bodies betray us in such a profound way, it can be all the more powerful for patients to really use the rhythms of poetry to make sense of what is happening in their bodies.”

On return visits, Dr. Campo’s patients often begin by discussing a poem he gave them — for example, “At the Cancer Clinic,” by Ted Kooser, from his collection “Delights & Shadows” (Copper Canyon Press, 2004), about a nurse holding the door for a slow-moving patient.

How patient she is in the crisp white sails
of her clothes. The sick woman
peers from under her funny knit cap
to watch each foot swing scuffing forward
and take its turn under her weight.
There is no restlessness or impatience
or anger anywhere in sight. Grace
fills the clean mold of this moment
and all the shuffling magazines grow still.

In Ms. Potvin’s case, poems related to her illness were often spurred by mundane moments, like seeing a neighbor out for a nightly walk. Here is “Tumor”:

My neighbor walks
For miles each night.
A mantra drives her, I imagine
As my boys’ chant did
The summer of my own illness:
“Push, Mommy, push.”
Urging me to wind my sore feet
Winch-like on a rented bike
To inch us home.
I couldn’t stop;
Couldn’t leave us
Miles from the end.

Karin Miller, 48, of Minneapolis, turned to poetry 15 years ago when her husband developed testicular cancer at the same time she was pregnant with their first child.

Her husband has since recovered, and Ms. Miller has reviewed thousands of poems by cancer patients and their loved ones to create the “Cancer Poetry Project” anthologies. One poem is “Hymn to a Lost Breast,” by Bonnie Maurer.

Oh let it fly
let it fling
let it flip like a pancake in the air
let it sing: what is the song
of one breast flapping?

Another is “Barn Wish” by Kim Knedler Hewett.

I sit where you can’t see me
Listening to the rustle of papers and pills in the other room,
Wondering if you can hear them.
Let’s go back to the barn, I whisper.
Let’s turn on the TV and watch the Bengals lose.
Let’s eat Bill’s Doughnuts and drink Pepsi.
Anything but this.

Ms. Miller has asked many of her poets to explain why they find poetry healing. “They say it’s the thing that lets them get to the core of how they are feeling,” she said. “It’s the simplicity of poetry, the bare bones of it, that helps them deal with their fears.”

---

Have you written a poem about cancer? Please share them with us in the comments section below.

Read More..

Television Review: ‘Silicon Valley,’ on ‘American Experience’ on PBS

“Silicon Valley” is a deceptively grand title for the new “American Experience” documentary Tuesday night on PBS. “Fairchild Semiconductor” would be more accurate. It could even be called “Robert Noyce” or, with a musical score and some dance numbers, “Noyce!”

But the film’s modest goals work in its favor. “Silicon Valley” takes one piece of the sprawling story of the electronics industry in Northern California and tells it with admirable clarity and detail. Stopping well short of the valley’s modern era — the action ends in the early 1970s, with the invention of the microprocessor — it’s rewarding as both history and nostalgia.

The documentary actually touches on several cycles of wistfulness. Nostalgia for the preindustrial Santa Clara Valley of orchards and farm stands, which has been heavy for more than three decades now, is indulged with grainy shots of apricots being picked and young men in letter sweaters and khaki pants walking past the History Corner of the Stanford quad. (Like many films about Silicon Valley, this one also cheats by including San Francisco vistas and cable cars.)

After that stage setting, the film gets to its central story: how in 1957 eight young men, led by a visionary physicist and engineer, Mr. Noyce, took the revolutionary step of leaving their company to form a start-up called Fairchild Semiconductor and in the process created Silicon Valley. Interviews with an array of industry veterans, including two of the three surviving defectors, outline how Fairchild and the companies it spawned both developed the technologies and established the business and financial cultures that would eventually produce behemoths like Apple and Google.

This is dramatic social and scientific history, revealing, among other things, how the semiconductor industry grew to serve the military and the space program long before the rise of the personal computer. But, again, the film’s visceral appeal has much to do with period detail: neatly groomed engineers wearing suits and ties, even on the production floor or at the bar of Walker’s Wagon Wheel in Mountain View; rows of women in smocks and hairnets assembling transistors. (The gender lines are inviolate in these early-’60s photos, and the men are almost invariably white.)

One startling image shows a handwritten list of the many corporations that declined to bankroll the eight pioneers before Fairchild Camera and Instrument said yes. If any of them had possessed more foresight, the silicon chip might have belonged to National Cash Register, Motorola, Philco, BorgWarner, Chrysler, General Mills or United Shoe.

Even with its relatively narrow focus, “Silicon Valley” is highly compressed, and people familiar with the industry may have complaints: that the infighting that made Fairchild Semiconductor’s reign short-lived isn’t fully explored, or that Intel, the chip giant later founded by Mr. Noyce and Gordon Moore, should receive more attention.

Any quibbling aside, though, the film is a captivating look at recent history that already feels ancient, when high technology involved inventing and building things rather than writing code and selling clicks.

American Experience

Silicon Valley

On PBS stations on Tuesday night (check local listings).

Produced by Film Posse for “American Experience.” Directed and edited by Randall MacLowry; written by Mr. MacLowry and Michelle Ferrari, based on a story by Mr. MacLowry; Mr. MacLowry and Tracy Heather Strain, producers; Mark Samels, executive producer for “American Experience”; Michael Murphy, narrator.

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The Lede: Video Broadcast on State Television Was Downloaded From U.S. Drone, Iran Says

Last Updated, 2:17 p.m. Iran’s state television broadcast Wednesday what it described as video recorded by the American surveillance drone that crash-landed about 140 miles from the country’s border with Afghanistan in late 2011.

Video broadcast on Iranian state television, said to have been downloaded from an American surveillance drone that crash-landed in Iran in 2011.

As The Associated Press reports from Tehran, the state television broadcast included aerial views of what the narration described as the American air base in Kandahar, Afghanistan, plus still photographs of an RQ-170 Sentinel stealth drone at that base made public in 2011, and images of the craft being recovered in 2011 by Iran’s military.

The report also featured an interview with Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, identified as the head of the aerospace division of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, who denied that the drone had simply crashed because of a computer malfunction, as American officials have claimed. “We were able to definitively access the data of the drone, once we brought it down,” General Hajizadeh said.

More footage said to have been recorded by the drone can be seen in a copy of the 24-minute Iranian report posted on YouTube on Wednesday by Lenziran, a site that monitors Iranian media.

In an analysis of the footage for Foreign Policy, the national security reporter John Reed observes that in one segment of the Iranian report, “the camera on this aircraft is positioned behind a rather complex nose landing gear assembly — a layout that matches grainy Web images of the Sentinel that show what looks like a compartment that could contain a camera positioned on the bottom of the airplane, just behind the front landing gear.”

A copy of an Iranian television report on a captured United States drone posted on YouTube.

The report, Mr. Reed adds, also features what appear to be authentic images of an American air base, “right down to C-130s parked on the ramp,” and “what looks like an MQ-9 Reaper drone (or possibly two) parked in an enclosed ramp — a drone pen if you will — complete with a walled perimeter and those tent hangars that are seen at expeditionary drone bases around the world.”

As The A.P. notes, on Thursday Iran’s Fars News Agency, which is close to the Revolutionary Guards, claimed that Iran had also started to produce functional copies of the smaller, American ScanEagle surveillance drone it displayed on state television in December. The Fars report quoted Iran’s deputy defense minister, Mohammad Eslami, saying that the country had also established a “production line for the drones in foreign countries.”

Read More..

ArcelorMittal, Announcing Loss, Indicates No Further Plant Closures in Europe

LONDON — ArcelorMittal, the world’s largest steel company, appeared to draw the line on additional European plant closures Wednesday, even as it announced a $4 billion net loss for the fourth quarter of 2012 and a $3.7 billion net loss for the year.

But the company’s results also highlighted just how bad operating conditions in Europe have been. A key reason for the losses was $5 billion in write-downs, almost all of it on its European businesses.

ArcelorMittal continues to be badly hurt by its operations in Europe, where it employs 98,000 people and where demand for steel has dropped by 30 percent since 2007, including a 9 percent decline in 2012. The company reported a $2.9 billion operating loss for the quarter in its European unit which supplies the beleaguered automobile industry.

Lakshmi N. Mittal, the company’s chairman and chief executive, said during a conference call with analysts Wednesday that he expected steel shipments to increase this year by 2 percent to 3 percent. That, he said, was because of growing demand for steel in China, Brazil and the United States, where the oil and gas industry, as well as auto and heavy equipment makers, were proving strong markets for ArcelorMittal’s products.

Unlike in Europe, he said that U.S. “businesses are getting loans.” He added that he expected Europe to remain in recession this year, but that this would be “far less severe than in 2012.”

Although ArcelorMittal is bidding on a steel plant being sold to the German steel maker ThyssenKrupp in Alabama, the company is mainly focusing on its new investments in mining, which has been more profitable than steel making of late, recording $1.2 billion in operating profit and a 22 percent operating margin last year.

The company announced Wednesday that the board had approved a big expansion and modernization of its iron ore mine in Liberia, part of a $4 billion effort to nearly double global iron ore production. The company’s iron ore output is likely to rise by 20 percent in 2013 as enlargement of its Canadian mines is completed, the company said.

Mr. Mittal said 2012 had turned out worse than expected, particularly in Europe and China, taking the industry by surprise.

“Production was not adjusted quickly enough, leading to oversupply and weak pricing,” he said, adding that steel prices were down 8.2 percent in 2012 from 2011.

Mr. Mittal created his company through a long series of acquisitions that culminated in an epic takeover battle for Arcelor, based in Luxembourg, in 2006. At the time it looked as if he had succeeded in achieving sufficient consolidation of the fragmented industry to make it highly profitable.

But conditions have been brutal since the financial crisis hit in 2008, with steel demand shrinking in Europe and North America, where ArcelorMittal has much of its operations. A large portion of the write-downs last year were noncash good will on European units acquired through the Arcelor merger.

The weak European economy “led to a downward revision of cash flow expectations” from these businesses, the company said.

Jeff Largey, an analyst at Macquarie Securities in London, wrote in a recent research note that the company made close to $43 billion in investments, including takeovers, from 2006 through 2011, whereas the company’s market value is now only about $28 billion. He said those figures raised questions about whether ArcelorMittal “will be able to generate shareholder value gains and sufficient returns from its investment projects.”

He also said that they raised “the question of whether the steel industry is capable of generating shareholder value” over the long term.

Mr. Largey wrote in an e-mail on Wednesday that he saw “a modest uplift in earnings for 2013” for ArcelorMittal, but that the steel industry remained hampered by “overcapacity and lackluster real demand, particularly in Europe.”

The difficult economic conditions have forced Mr. Mittal to take a knife to his operations, especially in Europe, where the company produces about 45 percent of its steel. ArcelorMittal previously announced the long-term idling of blast furnaces at Florange, France, various facilities in Liège, Belgium, and electric arc mills in Spain and Luxembourg as part of what it called its “asset optimization” program, which is designed to achieve $1 billion in annual savings.

The idlings and closures led to tensions with labor unions and a showdown with the government of President François Hollande of France over the closure at Florange, which employs 2,000 workers. The French government threatened to nationalize the facility before ArcelorMittal agreed to invest €180 million, or $234 million, in the site, though it indicated that the two blast furnaces would remain closed.

“We have had to deal with the negative reactions of many stakeholders during implementation, but steps we have taken have been essential, “ Mr. Mittal said Wednesday.

Aditya Mittal, the company’s chief financial officer and Mr. Mittal’s son, said ArcelorMittal did not “expect any further restructuring in Europe.” There will be further financial charges as the reorganization progresses, Aditya Mittal said.

Despite the company’s struggles, which have included downgrades of its debt to junk status, ArcelorMittal is still able to raise money in the markets. Last month it raised $4 billion through an offering of shares and convertible notes in an effort to reduce net debt, which it forecast would be $17 billion in June, down from $21.8 billion at the end of the year.

Read More..

The New Old Age Blog: For Women, Reduced Access to Long-Term Care Insurance

“This was a very, very good business for a short time, with people buying long-term care insurance like it was candy in a candy store,’’ said Michael Perry, a vice president at the Opus Advisory Group, a strategic financial planning firm in Purchase, N.Y.

No more. Mr. Perry has sold only one long-term care policy in the last six months and is “backing off from marketing’’ them as he watches this corner of the insurance business contract, raise premiums, tighten eligibility requirements and reduce key benefits. Long-term care insurance is a comparatively new product, launched in the late ’80s, and only now, as claims begin to pour in, have the actual costs to insurers become apparent.

Companies like MetLife, Prudential Financial, Allianz and Berkshire Financial (a subsidiary of Guardian) have stopped selling new policies and are hiking premiums for the ones already in place — up 37 percent, by one estimate, in 2011. Insurers are increasing elimination periods — the period during which a beneficiary must cover his or her own costs — and reducing inflation protection to 3 percent from 5 percent, once customary. They are requiring home visits instead of phone interviews from new applicants, as well as blood tests and a thorough examination of their medical records.

But the change that has generated the most public attention is so-called gender-distinct pricing, a new strategy that will raise rates for single women by as much as 40 percent beginning in April. Genworth Financial, the nation’s largest long-term care insurance provider with more than a million policy holders, is the first to win approval by state insurance commissions to raise rates for single women purchasing new policies. Women, most of them single by the time they reach advanced age, cost the company $2 of every $3 in benefits paid so far, according to Steve Zabel, Genworth’s senior vice president for long-term care insurance.

The company also will introduce what Mr. Zabel called “enhanced underwriting,” or more stringent qualifying standards, including blood testing to check for nicotine, drugs and markers of cardiovascular disease for all new applicants, regardless of gender or marital status.

Now permitted in all states except Montana and Colorado, gender-distinct pricing will not affect Genworth’s current policyholders, only new applicants. But all other carriers are likely to follow, according to Jesse Slome, executive director of the American Association for Long-Term Insurance, a trade group in Westlake Village, Calif. With the entire industry headed toward higher rates, Mr. Slome recently warned women that “the window is closing” and that now is the time to grab a policy while the price is still manageable.

Women have always paid less than men for life insurance. But because they live longer, women are the disproportionate beneficiaries of long-term care insurance, which paid out $6.6 billion in benefits in 2011. Mr. Slome expects that number to top $7 billion in 2012.

The reasons are well known:

* On average, women outlive men by five years. Among those born in 1960, the average man will live to age 67 and the average woman to age 73. And women who reach age 65 can expect to live an average of 20 more years.

* By age 75, 7 in 10 women are widowed, divorced or have never been married. Some 40 percent of them live alone, compared to 22 percent of men. Two-thirds of those past the age of 85 are women, as are 80 percent of centenarians.

* Women who live to age 65 experience on average two years of disability requiring assistance before death. Those who reach age 80 will require three years of assistance.

* In nursing homes, the most expensive form of long-term care, 7 in 10 residents are women. They represent 76 percent of the residents in assisted living facilities and two-thirds of the recipients of home care. Virtually none of this is paid for by Medicare, the government’s health plan for those 65-and-over. In nursing homes, Medicaid, a poverty program, kicks in for residents who run out of money.

“Woman live longer than men,” said Suzanna de Baca, a vice president of wealth strategies at Ameriprise Financial. “This may mean we experience a longer period of decline. Unfortunately, we are often less likely to have a partner around to help take care of us than our male counterparts.’’

Long-term care, Mr. Slome said, “is truly a women’s issue.”

While acknowledging the extra expense of caring for women, Mr. Slome said that in his view insurance carriers are being disingenuous in blaming the new policies on long-apparent gender differences. Rather he said, the culprit in the changing requirements is interest rates. “Blame the Federal Reserve,’’ he said.

Insurance carriers invest premiums and need to earn enough on that investment to pay benefits. When interest rates were higher, it was not all that difficult. Now the numbers don’t pencil out, and stockholders are fuming. But it is illegal to file for premium increases with the state insurance commissions based on changes in the financial market, Mr. Slome said.

This position does not endear Mr. Slome to his membership, at least one of whom disputes the claim. Asked if the new rate policies were related to interest rates, Mr. Zabel of Genworth, in an e-mail, replied with a succinct “no.”

Insurers say they were not able to judge the costs of care until the payouts began in earnest.

So what is a woman trying to prepare for old age supposed to do, especially after the elimination of the Class Act, a modest attempt to include long-term care in the Affordable Care Act?

Ms. da Baca suggests “careful and thorough budgeting,” “focusing on wellness,” and “proactive steps” to research suitable places to live when home is no longer an option. Ms. da Baca also advises women to make home modifications — incrementally, as one’s budget permits — to increase the chances that you’ll be able to stay there longer.

Mr. Perry, of the Opus Advisory Group, suggests an intriguing option: life insurance with a chronic care rider, which permits the policy-holder to spend money for such needs while alive, although doing so will reduce the tax-free death benefit. Still, not all buyers — or their survivors — are willing to sacrifice those benefits.

“The need is still there, no question about it,’’ Mr. Perry said. But long-term care insurance is likely to become much harder for everyone to find and afford, especially women.

---

Read More..

The New Old Age Blog: For Women, Reduced Access to Long-Term Care Insurance

“This was a very, very good business for a short time, with people buying long-term care insurance like it was candy in a candy store,’’ said Michael Perry, a vice president at the Opus Advisory Group, a strategic financial planning firm in Purchase, N.Y.

No more. Mr. Perry has sold only one long-term care policy in the last six months and is “backing off from marketing’’ them as he watches this corner of the insurance business contract, raise premiums, tighten eligibility requirements and reduce key benefits. Long-term care insurance is a comparatively new product, launched in the late ’80s, and only now, as claims begin to pour in, have the actual costs to insurers become apparent.

Companies like MetLife, Prudential Financial, Allianz and Berkshire Financial (a subsidiary of Guardian) have stopped selling new policies and are hiking premiums for the ones already in place — up 37 percent, by one estimate, in 2011. Insurers are increasing elimination periods — the period during which a beneficiary must cover his or her own costs — and reducing inflation protection to 3 percent from 5 percent, once customary. They are requiring home visits instead of phone interviews from new applicants, as well as blood tests and a thorough examination of their medical records.

But the change that has generated the most public attention is so-called gender-distinct pricing, a new strategy that will raise rates for single women by as much as 40 percent beginning in April. Genworth Financial, the nation’s largest long-term care insurance provider with more than a million policy holders, is the first to win approval by state insurance commissions to raise rates for single women purchasing new policies. Women, most of them single by the time they reach advanced age, cost the company $2 of every $3 in benefits paid so far, according to Steve Zabel, Genworth’s senior vice president for long-term care insurance.

The company also will introduce what Mr. Zabel called “enhanced underwriting,” or more stringent qualifying standards, including blood testing to check for nicotine, drugs and markers of cardiovascular disease for all new applicants, regardless of gender or marital status.

Now permitted in all states except Montana and Colorado, gender-distinct pricing will not affect Genworth’s current policyholders, only new applicants. But all other carriers are likely to follow, according to Jesse Slome, executive director of the American Association for Long-Term Insurance, a trade group in Westlake Village, Calif. With the entire industry headed toward higher rates, Mr. Slome recently warned women that “the window is closing” and that now is the time to grab a policy while the price is still manageable.

Women have always paid less than men for life insurance. But because they live longer, women are the disproportionate beneficiaries of long-term care insurance, which paid out $6.6 billion in benefits in 2011. Mr. Slome expects that number to top $7 billion in 2012.

The reasons are well known:

* On average, women outlive men by five years. Among those born in 1960, the average man will live to age 67 and the average woman to age 73. And women who reach age 65 can expect to live an average of 20 more years.

* By age 75, 7 in 10 women are widowed, divorced or have never been married. Some 40 percent of them live alone, compared to 22 percent of men. Two-thirds of those past the age of 85 are women, as are 80 percent of centenarians.

* Women who live to age 65 experience on average two years of disability requiring assistance before death. Those who reach age 80 will require three years of assistance.

* In nursing homes, the most expensive form of long-term care, 7 in 10 residents are women. They represent 76 percent of the residents in assisted living facilities and two-thirds of the recipients of home care. Virtually none of this is paid for by Medicare, the government’s health plan for those 65-and-over. In nursing homes, Medicaid, a poverty program, kicks in for residents who run out of money.

“Woman live longer than men,” said Suzanna de Baca, a vice president of wealth strategies at Ameriprise Financial. “This may mean we experience a longer period of decline. Unfortunately, we are often less likely to have a partner around to help take care of us than our male counterparts.’’

Long-term care, Mr. Slome said, “is truly a women’s issue.”

While acknowledging the extra expense of caring for women, Mr. Slome said that in his view insurance carriers are being disingenuous in blaming the new policies on long-apparent gender differences. Rather he said, the culprit in the changing requirements is interest rates. “Blame the Federal Reserve,’’ he said.

Insurance carriers invest premiums and need to earn enough on that investment to pay benefits. When interest rates were higher, it was not all that difficult. Now the numbers don’t pencil out, and stockholders are fuming. But it is illegal to file for premium increases with the state insurance commissions based on changes in the financial market, Mr. Slome said.

This position does not endear Mr. Slome to his membership, at least one of whom disputes the claim. Asked if the new rate policies were related to interest rates, Mr. Zabel of Genworth, in an e-mail, replied with a succinct “no.”

Insurers say they were not able to judge the costs of care until the payouts began in earnest.

So what is a woman trying to prepare for old age supposed to do, especially after the elimination of the Class Act, a modest attempt to include long-term care in the Affordable Care Act?

Ms. da Baca suggests “careful and thorough budgeting,” “focusing on wellness,” and “proactive steps” to research suitable places to live when home is no longer an option. Ms. da Baca also advises women to make home modifications — incrementally, as one’s budget permits — to increase the chances that you’ll be able to stay there longer.

Mr. Perry, of the Opus Advisory Group, suggests an intriguing option: life insurance with a chronic care rider, which permits the policy-holder to spend money for such needs while alive, although doing so will reduce the tax-free death benefit. Still, not all buyers — or their survivors — are willing to sacrifice those benefits.

“The need is still there, no question about it,’’ Mr. Perry said. But long-term care insurance is likely to become much harder for everyone to find and afford, especially women.

---

Read More..

TIMESCAST: PC Industry Shifts as Dell Goes Private

February 6, 2013By Fritzie Andrade, Zena Barakat, Emily B. Hager, Erica Berenstein, Krishnan Vasudevan, Kriston Lewis, Abe Sater and Robin Lindsay

TimesCast Media+Tech: The effects of Dell’s landmark deal. | Kit Eaton reviews video editing apps | The entrepreneur and inventor James Dyson.

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The Lede: Video of Protests Across Tunisia After an Opposition Leader Is Gunned Down

Video of a protest outside the interior ministry in Tunis on Wednesday from the blog Nawaat.

As my colleagues Kareem Fahim and Gerry Mullany report, there were protests across Tunisia on Wednesday following the assassination of Chokri Belaid, a leader of the secular opposition.

Video shot by activist bloggers for the independent Tunisian site Nawaat showed protesters rallying outside the interior ministry on the tree-lined Avenue Habib Bourguiba in Tunis early in the day, and then being chased from the street by police officers who fired tear gas into the crowd and beat demonstrators.

The Tunisian blog Nawaat’s video of police officers attacking protesters in Tunis on Wednesday.

After the avenue was cleared, witnesses reported that a small crowd accompanied the ambulance carrying Mr. Belaid’s body down the same street.

L’avenue vidée par une violente charge policière avant l’arrivée du cortège funéraire

— Maher Tekaya (@MaherTekaya) 6 Feb 13

Les ACAB font tout pour disperser les gens autour de l’ambulance http://t.co/l6ye72HC

— Selim (@Selim_) 6 Feb 13

L’ambulance #ripbelaid http://t.co/r2dsc15p

— Selim (@Selim_) 6 Feb 13

Retour a l’avenue, l’ambulance est la, grande émotion.. http://t.co/k5zxR8Nb

— Amira Yahyaoui (@Mira404) 6 Feb 13

As news of the assassination spread, there were protests in other cities and reports of attacks on the offices of Ennahda, the ruling Islamist party. Mr. Belaid had criticized Ennahda’s leaders for failing to condemn violent attacks on his party’s activists by young Islamists, in a television appearance shortly before his death, the French radio station Europe 1 reported.

Agence France-Presse video showed protesters marching in Sidi Bouzid, the town where the Tunisian revolt began.

More video of the demonstration in Tunis, and a clip of protesters occupying the headquarters of Ennahda in the city of Sfax, was posted online by Jadal, a Tunisian news site set up by the Institute for Peace and War Reporting.

Video from the Tunisian news site Jadal, said to show protesters occupying the offices of the ruling party in Sfax on Wednesday.

A demonstration outside the office of Ennahda in the coastal city of Mahdia was caught on video by a Nawaat blogger.

manifestation ce matin devant le siège d’Ennahdha a #Mahdia #chokribelaid http://t.co/0B3Vp7eK

— Nawaat ~ Tunisia (@nawaat) 6 Feb 13

Before the demonstration at the interior ministry was attacked by the police, activists in the crowd posted updates on the protest on Twitter.

En ce moment à l’avenue. Venez nombreux! http://t.co/8JEZiIat

— Maher Tekaya (@MaherTekaya) 6 Feb 13

“La révolution continue, la mort de Chokri est une leçon pour tous” crit un manifestant http://t.co/Y7cwHEOA

— Selim (@Selim_) 6 Feb 13

Vidéo tremblotante où on voit à la fin qu’ils sont prêts à gazer http://t.co/2MtxaGAW

— Amira Yahyaoui (@Mira404) 6 Feb 13

Among the chants, witnesses reported, were calls for the resignation of the interior minister, Ali Larayedh, a leader of Ennahda who is a former dissident.

“larayedh resignation” is their request http://t.co/HYkBj1nv

— myriam ben ghazi (@myriambenghazi) 6 Feb 13

Mr. Larayedh called the assassination of Mr. Belaid a “terrorist act” and “a blow to the democratic transition experience in Tunisia,” the state news agency reported.

One member of the crowd was Amira Yahyaoui, the president of the rights organization Al Bawsala, who suggested that Tunisians had waited long enough for reform of the hated police force. After Mr. Balaid’s death, she wrote, it was “necessary to go inside the interior ministry and clear out the incompetents and, worse, the facilitators” who had allowed such acts of political violence to take place.

Aujourd’hui il faut entrer a l’intérieur de ministère de l’intérieur et en dégager les incompétents, pire, les facilitateurs. #ChokriBelaid

— Amira Yahyaoui (@Mira404) 6 Feb 13

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Bucks Blog: Many Relying on Home Equity for Retirement

Even though the housing market has not recovered, nearly half of older working Americans expect to use equity in their homes to help finance their retirement, a new survey finds.

Roughly 47 percent of employed Americans ages 50 to 70 said they were relying on equity in their homes, the Retirement Check-In survey from Ameriprise Financial found. The finding is surprising, an accompanying report notes, because housing values in many parts of the country remain below the level they were before the recession. Also, 37 percent of homeowners say they’re not on track to pay off their mortgage before they retire.

More people said they were relying on home equity now compared with before the recession, the report finds. When participants were asked whether, before the downturn, they had expected to rely on home equity to help pay for their retirement, just 39 percent said yes.

While the reason for that shift isn’t entirely clear, the report says its plausible that the loss in value of other investments during the recession may have been so steep that many older workers feel they have no other alternative, even if their homes are worth less than they used to be.

“My hypothesis is that people didn’t think they were going to need to tap into equity because they thought they would have sufficient assets,” said Suzanna de Baca, vice president of wealth strategies at Ameriprise Financial. “Now, despite the fact they have reduced home equity, the shortfall between what they’ve saved and what they need is greater.”

The finding is typical of a “perplexing disparity” between Americans’ emotional outlook for retirement and the reality they face, the report said.

For instance, nearly three-quarters indicated that their dream retirement included taking “really nice vacations.” Yet, when asked if they would be able to afford the essentials in retirement, fewer than half said they felt “extremely” or “very” confident. And just 38 percent said they were confident they could afford the extras they had been anticipating in retirement, like traveling and hobbies.

The telephone survey included 1,000 employed Americans age 50 to 70, with investable assets of at least $100,000 (including employer-based retirement plans, but not real estate) and who are planning to retire at some point. Koski Research conducted the survey on behalf of Ameriprise Financial from Oct. 31 and Nov. 14, 2012. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

What role does home equity play in your retirement plans?

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Well: Warning Too Late for Some Babies

Six weeks after Jack Mahoney was born prematurely on Feb. 3, 2011, the neonatal staff at WakeMed Hospital in Raleigh, N.C., noticed that his heart rate slowed slightly when he ate. They figured he was having difficulty feeding, and they added a thickener to help.

When Jack was discharged, his parents were given the thickener, SimplyThick, to mix into his formula. Two weeks later, Jack was back in the hospital, with a swollen belly and in inconsolable pain. By then, most of his small intestine had stopped working. He died soon after, at 66 days old.

A month later, the Food and Drug Administration issued a caution that SimplyThick should not be fed to premature infants because it may cause necrotizing enterocolitis, or NEC, a life-threatening condition that damages intestinal tissue.

---

Catherine Saint Louis speaks about using SimplyThick in premature infants.

---

Experts do not know how the product may be linked to the condition, but Jack is not the only child to die after receiving SimplyThick. An F.D.A. investigation of 84 cases, published in The Journal of Pediatrics in 2012, found a “distinct illness pattern” in 22 instances that suggested a possible link between SimplyThick and NEC. Seven deaths were cited; 14 infants required surgery.

Last September, after more adverse events were reported, the F.D.A. warned that the thickener should not be given to any infants. But the fact that SimplyThick was widely used at all in neonatal intensive care units has spawned a spate of lawsuits and raised questions about regulatory oversight of food additives for infants.

SimplyThick is made from xanthan gum, a widely-used food additive on the F.D.A.’s list of substances “generally recognized as safe.” SimplyThick is classified as a food and the F.D.A. did not assess it for safety.

John Holahan, president of SimplyThick, which is based in St. Louis, acknowledged that the company marketed the product to speech language pathologists who in turn recommended it to infants. The patent touted its effectiveness in breast milk.

However, Mr. Holahan said, “There was no need to conduct studies, as the use of thickeners overall was already well established. In addition, the safety of xanthan gum was already well established.”

Since 2001, SimplyThick has been widely used by adults with swallowing difficulties. A liquid thickened to about the consistency of honey allows the drinker more time to close his airway and prevent aspiration.

Doctors in newborn intensive care units often ask non-physician colleagues like speech pathologists to determine whether an infant has a swallowing problem. And those auxiliary feeding specialists often recommended SimplyThick for neonates with swallowing troubles or acid reflux.

The thickener became popular because it was easy to mix, could be used with breast milk, and maintained its consistency, unlike alternatives like rice cereal.

“It was word of mouth, then neonatologists got used to using it. It became adopted,” said Dr. Steven Abrams, a neonatologist at Texas Children’s Hospital in Houston. “At any given time, several babies in our nursery — and in any neonatal unit — would be on it.”

But in early 2011, Dr. Benson Silverman, the director of the F.D.A.’s infant formula section, was alerted to an online forum where doctors had reported 15 cases of NEC among infants given SimplyThick. The agency issued its first warning about its use in babies that May. “We can only do something with the information we are provided with,” he said. “If information is not provided, how would we know?”

Most infants who took SimplyThick did not fall ill, and NEC is not uncommon in premature infants. But most who develop NEC do so while still in the hospital. Some premature infants given SimplyThick developed NEC later than usual, a few after they went home, a pattern the F.D.A. found unusually worrisome.

Even now it is not known how the thickener might have contributed to the infant deaths. One possibility is that xanthan gum itself is not suitable for the fragile digestive systems of newborns. The intestines of premature babies are “much more likely to have bacterial overgrowth” than adults’, said Dr. Jeffrey Pietz, the chief of newborn medicine at Children’s Hospital Central California in Madera.

“You try not to put anything in a baby’s intestine that’s not natural.” If you do, he added, “you’ve got to have a good reason.”

A second possibility is that batches of the thickener were contaminated with harmful bacteria. In late May 2011, the F.D.A. inspected the plants that make SimplyThick and found violations at one in Stone Mountain, Ga., including a failure to “thermally process” the product to destroy bacteria of a “public health significance.”

The company, Thermo Pac, voluntarily withdrew certain batches. But it appears some children may have ingested potentially contaminated batches.

The parents of Jaden Santos, a preemie who died of NEC while on SimplyThick, still have unused packets of recalled lots, according to their lawyer, Joe Taraska.

The authors of the F.D.A. report theorized that the infants’ intestinal membranes could have been damaged by bacteria breaking down the xanthan gum into too many toxic byproducts.

Dr. Qing Yang, a neonatologist at Wake Forest University, is a co-author of a case series in the Journal of Perinatology about three premature infants who took SimplyThick, developed NEC and were treated. The paper speculates that NEC was “most likely caused by the stimulation of the immature gut by xanthan gum.”

Dr. Yang said she only belatedly realized “there’s a lack of data” on xanthan gum’s use in preemies. “The lesson I learned is not to be totally dependent on the speech pathologist.”

Julie Mueller’s daughter Addison was born full-term and given SimplyThick after a swallow test showed she was at risk of choking. It was recommended by a speech pathologist at the hospital.

Less than a month later, Addison was dead with multiple holes in her small intestine. “It was a nightmare,” said Ms. Mueller, who has filed a lawsuit against SimplyThick. “I was astounded how a hospital and manufacturer was gearing this toward newborns when they never had to prove it would be safe for them. Basically we just did a research trial for the manufacturer.”

Read More..

Well: Warning Too Late for Some Babies

Six weeks after Jack Mahoney was born prematurely on Feb. 3, 2011, the neonatal staff at WakeMed Hospital in Raleigh, N.C., noticed that his heart rate slowed slightly when he ate. They figured he was having difficulty feeding, and they added a thickener to help.

When Jack was discharged, his parents were given the thickener, SimplyThick, to mix into his formula. Two weeks later, Jack was back in the hospital, with a swollen belly and in inconsolable pain. By then, most of his small intestine had stopped working. He died soon after, at 66 days old.

A month later, the Food and Drug Administration issued a caution that SimplyThick should not be fed to premature infants because it may cause necrotizing enterocolitis, or NEC, a life-threatening condition that damages intestinal tissue.

---

Catherine Saint Louis speaks about using SimplyThick in premature infants.

---

Experts do not know how the product may be linked to the condition, but Jack is not the only child to die after receiving SimplyThick. An F.D.A. investigation of 84 cases, published in The Journal of Pediatrics in 2012, found a “distinct illness pattern” in 22 instances that suggested a possible link between SimplyThick and NEC. Seven deaths were cited; 14 infants required surgery.

Last September, after more adverse events were reported, the F.D.A. warned that the thickener should not be given to any infants. But the fact that SimplyThick was widely used at all in neonatal intensive care units has spawned a spate of lawsuits and raised questions about regulatory oversight of food additives for infants.

SimplyThick is made from xanthan gum, a widely-used food additive on the F.D.A.’s list of substances “generally recognized as safe.” SimplyThick is classified as a food and the F.D.A. did not assess it for safety.

John Holahan, president of SimplyThick, which is based in St. Louis, acknowledged that the company marketed the product to speech language pathologists who in turn recommended it to infants. The patent touted its effectiveness in breast milk.

However, Mr. Holahan said, “There was no need to conduct studies, as the use of thickeners overall was already well established. In addition, the safety of xanthan gum was already well established.”

Since 2001, SimplyThick has been widely used by adults with swallowing difficulties. A liquid thickened to about the consistency of honey allows the drinker more time to close his airway and prevent aspiration.

Doctors in newborn intensive care units often ask non-physician colleagues like speech pathologists to determine whether an infant has a swallowing problem. And those auxiliary feeding specialists often recommended SimplyThick for neonates with swallowing troubles or acid reflux.

The thickener became popular because it was easy to mix, could be used with breast milk, and maintained its consistency, unlike alternatives like rice cereal.

“It was word of mouth, then neonatologists got used to using it. It became adopted,” said Dr. Steven Abrams, a neonatologist at Texas Children’s Hospital in Houston. “At any given time, several babies in our nursery — and in any neonatal unit — would be on it.”

But in early 2011, Dr. Benson Silverman, the director of the F.D.A.’s infant formula section, was alerted to an online forum where doctors had reported 15 cases of NEC among infants given SimplyThick. The agency issued its first warning about its use in babies that May. “We can only do something with the information we are provided with,” he said. “If information is not provided, how would we know?”

Most infants who took SimplyThick did not fall ill, and NEC is not uncommon in premature infants. But most who develop NEC do so while still in the hospital. Some premature infants given SimplyThick developed NEC later than usual, a few after they went home, a pattern the F.D.A. found unusually worrisome.

Even now it is not known how the thickener might have contributed to the infant deaths. One possibility is that xanthan gum itself is not suitable for the fragile digestive systems of newborns. The intestines of premature babies are “much more likely to have bacterial overgrowth” than adults’, said Dr. Jeffrey Pietz, the chief of newborn medicine at Children’s Hospital Central California in Madera.

“You try not to put anything in a baby’s intestine that’s not natural.” If you do, he added, “you’ve got to have a good reason.”

A second possibility is that batches of the thickener were contaminated with harmful bacteria. In late May 2011, the F.D.A. inspected the plants that make SimplyThick and found violations at one in Stone Mountain, Ga., including a failure to “thermally process” the product to destroy bacteria of a “public health significance.”

The company, Thermo Pac, voluntarily withdrew certain batches. But it appears some children may have ingested potentially contaminated batches.

The parents of Jaden Santos, a preemie who died of NEC while on SimplyThick, still have unused packets of recalled lots, according to their lawyer, Joe Taraska.

The authors of the F.D.A. report theorized that the infants’ intestinal membranes could have been damaged by bacteria breaking down the xanthan gum into too many toxic byproducts.

Dr. Qing Yang, a neonatologist at Wake Forest University, is a co-author of a case series in the Journal of Perinatology about three premature infants who took SimplyThick, developed NEC and were treated. The paper speculates that NEC was “most likely caused by the stimulation of the immature gut by xanthan gum.”

Dr. Yang said she only belatedly realized “there’s a lack of data” on xanthan gum’s use in preemies. “The lesson I learned is not to be totally dependent on the speech pathologist.”

Julie Mueller’s daughter Addison was born full-term and given SimplyThick after a swallow test showed she was at risk of choking. It was recommended by a speech pathologist at the hospital.

Less than a month later, Addison was dead with multiple holes in her small intestine. “It was a nightmare,” said Ms. Mueller, who has filed a lawsuit against SimplyThick. “I was astounded how a hospital and manufacturer was gearing this toward newborns when they never had to prove it would be safe for them. Basically we just did a research trial for the manufacturer.”

Read More..